Amgen's Q3 Earnings in the Cards: Here's What to Expect

Amgen AMGN will report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 4, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings beat expectations by 14.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $8.94 billion and $5.00 per share, respectively.

Factors to Consider for Amgen

Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to continue to decline due to higher rebates to support expanded access.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto sales is pegged at $519.0 million, $720.0 million and $413.0 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto sales are pegged at $463.9 million, $672.2 million and $395.5 million, respectively.

Sales of RANKL antibodies (including sequences), Prolia and Xgeva, declined in the second quarter. Patents for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the United States, while the same will expire in some European countries in November 2025. Sales of these best-selling drugs are expected to have eroded significantly in the third quarter as three biosimilars have been launched in the U.S. market.

However, newer drugs like Imdelltra, Tavneos and Tezspire are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tezspire and Tavneos is pegged at $364.0 million and $119.0 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $270.6 million and $120.7 million, respectively.

However, competitive pressure hurt volume growth of Kyprolis in the first half, a trend likely to have continued in the third quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kyprolis sales is pegged at $374.0 million, while our estimate is $372.6 million.

Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to declining prices. Otezla sales are likely to have gained from volume growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $582.0 million, while our estimate is $648.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $645.0 million, while our estimate is $530.4 million.

Sales of rare disease drugs, Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, improved in the second quarter from the first quarter levels. The positive trend is expected to have continued in the third quarter.

Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) as well as Amjevita/Amgevita, a biosimilar version of AbbVie’s Humira, due to increased competitive pressure, are expected to have hurt the top line. Sales of legacy established products are also likely to have declined.

Newer biosimilar products are, however, likely to have contributed to sales growth. Amgen launched a biosimilar version of J&J’s (JNJ) Stelara called Wezlana in January and Regeneron’s Eylea called Pavblu in the fourth quarter of 2024. Amgen expects fluctuations in quarterly sales for Wezlana in the United States, as a result of which the company does not expect any sales from Wezlana in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter, following a large first-quarter order

Bekemv, a biosimilar version of AstraZeneca’s Soliris, was approved in the United States in May 2024 and was launched in the second quarter of 2025. Investors will look out for Pavblu and Bekemv’s sales numbers in the third quarter.

Higher R&D costs are likely to have hurt operating margin in the third quarter.

Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity.

AMGN’s Earnings Surprise History

This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.75%, on average.

Amgen’s stock has risen 12.1% so far this year compared with an increase of 10.3% for the industry.

What Our Model Says for AMGN

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is -1.25%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $5.00 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower at $4.94 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our  Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +0.57% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Vertex’s stock has risen 4.9% so far this year. Vertex’s earnings performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an earnings surprise of 2.15%, on average. Vertex is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 3.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY has an Earnings ESP of +25.79% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of ALNY have rallied 100.3% year to date. Alnylam beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters, while meeting the same in the remaining quarter, delivering an average surprise of 348.36%. ALNY is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 30, 2025.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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