Mosaic to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release third-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on Nov. 4.

The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 13.7%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 23.9% in the last reported quarter. While MOS is expected to have gained from higher prices and cost-control actions, its third-quarter results are likely to reflect the impacts of weaker volumes.

Mosaic’s shares have gained 7.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 16.8% rise.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do MOS’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $3,438.5 million, calling for an increase of 22.3% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for MOS Stock

Mosaic is expected to have gained from favorable demand for phosphate and potash in the September quarter, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Attractive farm economics continue to drive demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. 

Mosaic is also taking action to reduce costs amid a still challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to have aided profitability in the third quarter. MOS remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is now expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts. 

MOS’s cost-control measures, which, along with higher fertilizer realized prices, are expected to have aided its margins in the third quarter. Our estimate for average selling price per ton for the Potash segment is pegged at $280, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 20.2%. We also expect average selling price per ton for the Phosphate unit to be $708, indicating a 22.2% increase from the prior-year quarter.

Certain operational issues, however, are likely to have affected the company’s phosphate sales volumes in the quarter to be reported. Mosaic, earlier this month, said that mechanical issues at the Riverview sulfuric acid plant and utility interruptions at Bartow in mid-September led to a considerable decline in overall production for the balance of the month. These issues resulted in lower-than-expected preliminary phosphate production volumes of roughly 1.7 million tons in the third quarter, MOS noted. Phosphate sales volumes for the third quarter were 1.6 million tons due to shipment lags. Preliminary potash production and sales volumes were both roughly 2.3 million tons for the third quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for MOS Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is +0.51%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at 98 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

IAMGOLD Corporation IAG, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +6.33% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for IAG’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 20 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +13.46%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 33 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. 

Barrick Mining Corporation B, slated to release earnings on Nov. 10, has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for B’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 57 cents.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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