FICO to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Fair Isaac Corporation FICO is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Nov. 5.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $511.78 million, suggesting an increase of 12.77% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $7.34 per share, up a couple of pennies over the past 30 days, indicating 12.23% year-over-year growth.

For fiscal 2025, FICO anticipates revenues of $1.98 billion. Non-GAAP earnings are projected to be $29.15 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $1.99 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 15.75%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $29.50 per share, up a couple of pennies over the past 30 days, indicating 24.26% year-over-year growth.

Fair Isaac Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Fair Isaac Corporation price-eps-surprise | Fair Isaac Corporation Quote

FICO’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the same in the other two, the average surprise being 2.22%.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Factors to Note

FICO’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from sustained growth in Scores revenues, driven by the adoption of its most advanced scoring solutions, particularly FICO Score 10 T and strong consumer demand.

In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, FICO reported a continued strong momentum in the adoption of FICO Score 10T, especially within the mortgage sector, as new lenders joined the early-adopter program, reflecting growing confidence in the model’s predictive power. This trend is expected to have extended into the fiscal fourth quarter, strengthening the company’s position as a key scoring provider for non-GSE mortgage originations. 

FICO continues to innovate in scoring solutions. The introduction of FICO Score 10 BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later data) and FICO Score 10 T BNPL is expected to have broadened its market reach in the to-be-reported quarter. These scores include Buy Now, Pay Later data, giving lenders better insight into consumers’ repayment behavior and helping with financial inclusion. The launch of these products is likely to have attracted new customers and strengthened FICO’s position in the credit scoring industry.

FICO’s flagship FICO Platform is the cornerstone of its AI expansion. The company’s collaboration with Amazon’s AMZN cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (“AWS”), has further increased FICO’s AI capabilities. The partnership with Amazon’s AWS aims to amplify the adoption of AI-driven automated decision workflows powered by the FICO Platform. Benefits from this partnership are likely to have reflected in the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.

However, revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 are expected to be $505 million, suggesting a sequential decline from $536 million. This decrease can be attributed to lower point-in-time revenues, including Insurance Scores licenses and Software licenses. It also anticipates slightly lower Scores originations volumes due to seasonality, as well as a sequential decline in professional services revenues. Additionally, increased marketing expenses and one-time costs exceeding $10 million may adversely impact results.

What Our Model Says

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here, as seen below.

FICO currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

EPAM System EPAM has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

EPAM system shares have lost 32% year to date. EPAM is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6.

Affirm AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Affirm shares have risen 13.1% year to date. AFRM is also set to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Nov. 6.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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