Novo Nordisk Before Q3 Earnings: How Should Investors Play the Stock?

Novo Nordisk NVO is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Nov. 5, 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $11.88 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at 77 cents per share.

In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo Nordisk’s 2025 earnings per share (EPS) deteriorated from $3.84 to $3.67. During the same time frame, the company’s 2026 EPS forecast has dropped from $3.97 to $3.91. 

NVO Estimate Movement

NVO’s Earnings Surprise History

Novo Nordisk’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters, with earnings beating estimates in two quarters, matching once and missing the mark on the remaining occasion. On average, Novo Nordisk registered an earnings surprise of 3.21% in the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 4.3%.

What Does Our Model Say?

Novo Nordisk has an Earnings ESP of -11.04% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat, which is not the case for NVO. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors Shaping NVO’s Upcoming Results

Novo Nordisk operates under two segments — Diabetes and Obesity Care and Rare disease.

Novo Nordisk’s revenues in the third quarter are expected to have been driven by the sale of its diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly semaglutide-based drugs — Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus. Wegovy is the largest contributor to the company’s top line. Its label has also been expanded for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms, noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity. The FDA is also reviewing Novo Nordisk’s application for a 25 mg oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) for obesity and cardiovascular disease, with a decision expected by year-end.

Ozempic is also the only GLP-1 therapy approved to reduce kidney disease progression and cardiovascular death in patients with type II diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease. The drug is expected to have contributed meaningfully to the top line, along with Rybelsus oral pill, which is approved for T2D and cardiovascular risk reduction. NVO is also pursuing a label expansion of Ozempic in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU.

Ozempic and Rybelsus sales, along with insulin product sales growth, are also likely to have contributed meaningfully to the top line. Additionally, the Rare Disease segment is expected to have generated incremental revenues for the company.

However, given Novo Nordisk’s July guidance cut and the ongoing headwinds in its GLP-1 franchise, sales of Ozempic and Wegovy are expected to have remained under pressure in the third quarter of 2025. The company continues to face slower-than-expected U.S. momentum for both drugs, as unregulated compounded semaglutide products persist in the market despite regulatory crackdowns. Although sales of Ozempic and Wegovy are likely to have posted year-over-year growth, the pace of the growth has probably slowed. This is mainly due to Wegovy’s uptake remaining below expectations amid limited market expansion and rising competition, while Ozempic’s momentum moderated due to intensified rivalry in the U.S. diabetes market.

NVO’s Stock Price & Valuation

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 42.5% compared with the industry’s 4.8% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 12.79 forward earnings, which is lower than 15.42 for the industry. The stock is also trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Investment Thesis

Novo Nordisk has achieved tremendous commercial success with Wegovy and Ozempic in the past. However, the company’s growth trajectory has suffered recently.

In July 2025, NVO revised its sales and profit outlook for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected uptake for Wegovy and Ozempic, due to intensifying competition from arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY and compounded semaglutide alternatives in its largest obesity market, the United States. To tackle the same, Novo Nordisk announced a major restructuring program in September 2025, aimed at streamlining operations and reinvesting in its core diabetes and obesity businesses. The plan includes reducing its global workforce by about 9,000 employees, targeting annualized savings of around DKK 8 billion by 2026.

Eli Lilly markets its tirzepatide injections as Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity. Despite being on the market for less than three years, both drugs have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first half of 2025, they generated combined sales of $14.7 billion, accounting for 52% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. Last week, LLY reported strong third-quarter results, beating earnings and revenue estimates. Mounjaro and Zepbound revenues more than doubled year over year, driven by increased demand. The company also raised its 2025 full-year revenue and EPS guidance.

Novo Nordisk shares also suffered after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled steep price cuts for Ozempic and Wegovy, saying government negotiations could bring the cost from over $1,000 to roughly $150 a month. While formal pricing talks for GLP-1 drugs have not begun, Trump and Medicare chief Mehmet Oz indicated they will start gradually and continue until the administration is satisfied, with the President expecting prices to fall “pretty fast.” The remarks raise uncertainties for Novo Nordisk, given the importance of semaglutide drugs to its growth. Currently, both drugs cost over $1,000 monthly in the United States, though NVO’s direct-to-consumer NovoCare Pharmacy offers them at $499 for cash-pay patients.

Competition in the obesity treatment market is intensifying as the space, projected by Goldman Sachs to reach $100 billion by 2030, attracts new contenders beyond leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Amgen AMGN and Viking Therapeutics VKTX are advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Amgen has launched a broad phase III program for its dual GIPR/GLP-1 agonist, MariTide, targeting obesity and diabetes. Meanwhile, Viking Therapeutics is progressing two late-stage studies of its injectable VK2735 and reported mixed mid-stage data on the oral version in August, prompting a sharp stock decline.

However, Novo Nordisk is making steady progress across its pipeline. The company is advancing new candidates for T2D and obesity, while also working to expand the approved uses of Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus to drive further growth. Efforts to develop next-generation obesity drugs could help diversify its portfolio. Beyond metabolic diseases, NVO is also building out its rare disease segment, with the submission of a regulatory filing for Mim8 in hemophilia A in the United States and recent approvals of a broader label for its Alhemo injection for hemophilia A or B, further strengthening its position in the hemophilia space.

Here's How to Play NVO Stock

Amid growing challenges, we believe investors might want to reduce their exposure to Novo Nordisk, regardless of how its third-quarter results turn out. While the company is still seeing solid demand and revenue growth from its semaglutide-based drugs, the 2025 sales and profit guidance cut signals slowing momentum in key markets. In the United States, sales of Wegovy and Ozempic are being hurt by the continued use of compounded versions, even after FDA restrictions. At the same time, rival Eli Lilly is gaining ground with its competing drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, which have shown stronger clinical results and are quickly gaining market share, putting pressure on Novo Nordisk’s core business.

This prompted the company to cut 9,000 jobs and streamline operations to refocus on its core obesity and diabetes businesses. Amid these challenges, a sharp reduction in the prices of NVO’s core revenue drivers, as hinted by President Trump, poses a serious threat to its profitability, particularly given that the United States is its largest market for obesity treatments and could dampen future R&D investment in next-generation obesity therapies. The stock has underperformed significantly in 2025 and now trades at a steep discount to both its historical average and the broader industry. While the long-term potential in obesity and rare diseases remains, heightened volatility, legal and regulatory challenges, and a crowded GLP-1 development landscape suggest that the near-term risk/reward profile is skewed to the downside. These factors may prompt risk-averse investors to consider exiting their position or limiting exposure until clearer visibility emerges.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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