Opendoor to Post Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Opendoor Technologies Inc. OPEN is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6, 2025, with investors focused on how the company is navigating a tougher housing backdrop while executing its transformation toward a distributed, agent-led platform.

In the last reported quarter, Opendoor delivered a resilient performance, beating guidance and turning profitable on an adjusted basis despite a weakening housing backdrop. The company posted $1.6 billion in revenues, up 4% year over year, on 4,299 homes sold, while disciplined underwriting led to 1,757 acquisitions, down sharply from last year. Gross profit held steady at $128 million with an 8.2% margin, and Contribution Profit of $69 million reflected the impact of older inventory on resale economics. Still, adjusted EBITDA reached $23 million, Opendoor’s first positive quarter since 2022, underscoring improved cost efficiency and operational leverage. The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion of inventory and $789 million in unrestricted cash, maintaining strong liquidity.

This digital real estate company surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met on the other occasion, with an average surprise being 17.1%. You can see the historical figures in the chart below.

How Are Estimates Placed for OPEN Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter bottom line has narrowed to a loss of 7 cents per share from 9 cents over the past 60 days. The company reported a year-ago loss per share of 10 cents. The consensus mark for revenues is $851.7 million, suggesting a 38.2% year-over-year increase.

For 2025, OPEN is expected to register a 16.7% decrease from a year ago in revenues. Its bottom line is expected to witness an improvement to a loss of 24 cents per share from 37 cents a year ago.

OPEN’s Earnings Estimate

OPEN’s Revenue Estimate

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Opendoor Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Opendoor for the quarter to be reported. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Opendoor has an Earnings ESP of -5.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Influencing Opendoor’s Q3 Performance

Opendoor’s top-line performance in the third quarter is expected to have drawn support from its ongoing transformation from a single-product iBuyer into a distributed, agent-led real estate platform. While third-quarter revenue is expected to decline sequentially, the underlying drivers highlight progress toward improving funnel conversion and diversifying monetization beyond direct home resales.

A key driver stems from the company’s strengthened distribution model. Throughout the second quarter, Opendoor rapidly expanded its network of partner agents across all operating markets, leveraging deep agent relationships to reach sellers earlier in the decision cycle and unlock capital-light revenue opportunities such as listing commissions. Early pilot results demonstrated the potential impact of this strategy: twice as many sellers are reaching a final underwritten cash offer compared to Opendoor’s traditional direct-to-consumer workflow, which significantly increases throughput at the top of the funnel. Additionally, listing conversion rates are five times higher when agents guide sellers to their preferred transaction outcome, giving Opendoor a pathway to serve customers profitably even when cash offer acceptance is low in a high-mortgage-rate environment. 

Beyond distribution, the launch of Cash Plus adds incremental runway for revenue capture in this macro environment. For customers hesitant to trade affordability for convenience, Cash Plus provides immediate liquidity while still enabling upside through the open market — a value proposition particularly relevant when affordability constraints, rate lock-in effects and low buyer demand slow the market. Management expects this product to generate better risk-adjusted returns for Opendoor by reducing upfront capital requirements and protecting downside exposure during resale. 

Inventory resales continue to serve as the cornerstone of the third-quarter revenue. Opendoor exited the second quarter with 4,538 homes in inventory, representing $1.5 billion in value available for resale. While acquisition volume has been intentionally reduced to prioritize disciplined underwriting and maintain elevated spreads, earlier-acquired inventory should still support healthy resale flow in the third quarter, particularly in markets where pricing data remains favorable and time-on-market trends have not materially worsened.

Opendoor’s proprietary data and pricing intelligence — built from millions of home visits — also strengthens its ability to manage spreads dynamically and maintain revenue predictability in volatile conditions. This data advantage improves risk-adjusted decision support and allows the company to keep homes moving through the funnel even as the broader market experiences one of the slowest spring and summer selling seasons in over a decade due to persistently high rates and record delistings. 

Taken together, the combination of resales from prior inventory, improved funnel monetization through agents and contributions from hybrid products like Cash Plus and superior AI-driven pricing infrastructure forms the basis for Opendoor’s revenue expectations in the third quarter — even as macro headwinds continue to limit acquisition growth and transaction velocity.

Management guided for the third-quarter revenue between $800 million and $875 million, a sequential decline following the second quarter’s $1.6 billion performance.

On the margin side, Opendoor expects third-quarter contribution margin between 2.8% and 3.3% and adjusted EBITDA between negative $28 million and negative $21 million, turning negative again after the second-quarter milestone profitability. The renewed margin compression is driven by the unfavorable resale mix of older, lower-margin inventory, which management said is unavoidable given recent declines in acquisition pacing.

Reduced marketing spend (due to macro and seasonality) and disciplined pricing support margin preservation. However, higher spreads to manage pricing risk also reduce conversion efficiency. The company acknowledges that these dynamics are likely to keep contribution margin improvement out of reach for 2025 despite cost control gains.

OPEN Stock Outperforms Industry

OPEN shares have skyrocketed 1,310.7% during the July-September period, outperforming the Zacks Internet - Software industry, the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500 index.

OPEN Stock’s July-Sept. Performance

A Look at OPEN Stock's Valuation

OPEN shares are currently undervalued. In terms of its forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, OPEN is trading at 1.16, lower than the industry’s 5.34.

OPEN’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

Opendoor’s Competition Position

Opendoor maintains a differentiated competitive position in the iBuying and real estate technology space by pairing scale, pricing intelligence and a growing agent-led platform. While Zillow Group Z remains a formidable player with marketplace dominance, Zillow lacks Opendoor’s fully integrated resale operations, giving Opendoor an advantage in speed and certainty. Zillow competes heavily for seller attention, but Opendoor’s direct transaction model and expanding hybrid products set it apart. 

Offerpad OPAD, another iBuyer, competes directly with Opendoor in select markets, yet Offerpad’s smaller footprint, lower brand awareness and slower seller funnel conversion underscore Opendoor’s scale advantage. Offerpad continues to face profitability and liquidity constraints that Opendoor, even amid market volatility, has increasingly managed with discipline.

Why OPEN Stock Is a Hold for Now?

The company’s disciplined execution and strategic pivot toward a distributed, agent-led platform are beginning to show tangible benefits — notably, improved funnel conversion, positive adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, and growing adoption of hybrid products like Cash Plus that expand capital-light revenue streams. These advancements signal progress toward building a more resilient, scalable model that can weather cyclical softness in home transactions.

While management’s guidance points to sequential revenue moderation and margin contraction in the third quarter due to older inventory and reduced acquisition pacing, the broader trajectory remains constructive. Opendoor’s $789 million in unrestricted cash and $1.5 billion in home inventory offer strong liquidity to navigate market volatility. Moreover, its AI-driven pricing intelligence and expanding agent partnerships continue to sharpen competitive positioning against players like Zillow and Offerpad.

OPEN’s forward valuation also remains compelling, with a 1.16x forward P/S multiple well below the industry average, suggesting that much of the near-term housing weakness is already priced in. With an improving earnings trend — as the consensus estimate for loss narrows — investors may be rewarded for patience as the company refines its platform and positions for a stronger housing recovery in 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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