Should You Buy Moderna Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings Report?

Moderna MRNA is set to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 6, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $860 million and a loss of $2.15 per share, respectively. Both metrics indicate a significant decline from year-ago levels.

Estimates for Moderna’s 2025 loss per share have widened from $9.50 to $9.74 over the past 30 days.

MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 37.78%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna delivered an earnings surprise of 28.76%.

What Our Model Predicts for MRNA

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -5.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping MRNA’s Upcoming Results

Moderna is likely to have generated the major portion of its quarterly revenues from selling its COVID-19 vaccines, Spikevax and mNexspike. Our model estimate for combined sales from COVID-19 vaccines is pegged at $762 million, implying a significant decline from the year-ago level due to waning demand for boosters.

We expect minimal product sales of the company's RSV vaccine, mResvia. We estimate the vaccine’s sales at just $30 million, far below sales of competing RSV vaccines, Arexvy, marketed by GSK plc GSK, and Abrysvo, marketed by Pfizer PFE. The softer sales expectation is likely due to stiff competition and the strong foothold of the GSK and Pfizer vaccines in the RSV space.

Moderna is developing more than 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates across different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Investors will likely focus on updates surrounding pipeline development, especially after the recent setback in the company’s CMV vaccine program.

Last month, Moderna announced that its pivotal Phase III study evaluating mRNA-1647 failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint, prompting the company to discontinue development of the candidate for CMV prevention. However, mRNA-1647 continues to be studied in an ongoing mid-stage study in bone marrow transplant patients. Investors will watch closely to see whether Moderna intends to re-enter the CMV vaccine space with a next-generation candidate.

Investors’ attention will also be on mRNA-1083, Moderna’s COVID-19/influenza combination vaccine, which remains on track for FDA resubmission before year-end. The initial filing was voluntarily withdrawn in May after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component. This issue was addressed with positive late-stage data announced in June, where the company’s standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK’s approved influenza vaccine. mRNA-1083 integrates the company’s COVID-19 vaccine with mRNA-1010.

An important candidate in Moderna’s pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy which is being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. Moderna and Merck are evaluating the therapy in three pivotal phase III studies — one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer space. It is also being evaluated in separate mid-stage studies for high-risk bladder cancers (both muscle-invasive and non-muscle-invasive), adjuvant renal cell carcinoma and first-line metastatic melanoma. Investors might seek an update on the Merck-partnered therapy’s progress across these studies.

A single quarter’s results are not important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell, or hold Moderna stock at present.

MRNA’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Year to date, Moderna’s shares have plunged 40% against the industry’s 12% growth. The stock has also underperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500.

MRNA Stock Underperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500

From a valuation standpoint, Moderna is trading at a premium to the industry. Going by the price/sales (P/S) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 3.14 times trailing 12-month sales value, higher than 2.33 for the industry.

Our Investment Thesis on MRNA Stock

Although Moderna’s top line continues to experience significant year-over-year declines due to waning COVID-19 vaccine demand, its strengthened cash position enables it to make increased investments toward supporting its pipeline development. As of June 2025-end, Moderna had cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately $7.5 billion. Combined with the company’s cost efficiency program launched last year, this cash should enable the company to support its growth plans over the next few years.

However, the recent setback in the CMV vaccine program has raised a negative sentiment around the stock. The company had been on track to launch the CMV vaccine, mRNA-1647, in 2026, marking one of the earliest non-COVID commercial opportunities in its post-pandemic portfolio. The failure in the CMV study has not only removed a key near-term growth driver but also created uncertainty around the pace at which Moderna can execute on its broader launch roadmap. While the company maintains that this outcome does not impact its goal of achieving operating cash-flow breakeven by 2028, it does increase dependence on other late-stage assets.

Before the CMV setback, Moderna had outlined plans to launch 10 new marketed products by 2028, collectively targeting a total addressable market exceeding $30 billion. This multi-product expansion strategy was central to offsetting the sharp decline in COVID-19 vaccine revenues and repositioning the company as a diversified mRNA therapeutics player. The recent CMV vaccine failure clouds this outlook, particularly as investors were already questioning the company’s execution following the muted commercial debut of mResvia — Moderna’s first non-COVID-19 product that was launched last year. The RSV vaccine’s sales performance has been significantly underwhelming when compared to GSK’s Arexvy and Pfizer’s Abrysvo, highlighting the competitive challenges faced by Moderna as it expands beyond the COVID-19 vaccination space.

How to Play the MRNA Stock?

Moderna’s premium valuation and recent downward revisions to earnings estimates make it difficult to justify building or increasing positions at this stage. Until the company provides greater clarity on its post-COVID-19 commercial trajectory and near-term growth drivers, investors may be better off steering clear of the stock in the near term.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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