Murphy Oil to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store this Season?

Murphy Oil Corporation MUR is expected to register a year-over-year decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 5, after market close. The company reported an earnings surprise of 28.57% in the last reported quarter.

Let us focus on how things might have shaped up for the company this season.

Key Factors That Might Have Influenced MUR’s Q3 Earnings

Murphy Oil’s quarterly earnings are expected to have been supported by increased production from both its domestic and international assets. The addition of new wells that came online during the third quarter is likely to have contributed further to output growth. Murphy’s hedging of natural gas volumes is expected to have provided protection against price volatility.

MUR’s overall financial performance and free cash flow have strengthened, driven by higher production from its diverse, low-breakeven North American portfolio. This improvement has enabled Murphy Oil to enhance shareholder returns through steady stock repurchases, which are expected to have supported its bottom line in the yet-to-be-reported quarter.

Murphy Oil's free cash flow supports its ongoing debt-reduction initiatives, which are expected to have lowered capital servicing expenses, thereby boosting margins in the to-be-reported quarter.

Q3 Expectation From MUR

Murphy Oil expects its third-quarter production volume excluding NCI to be in the range of 185-193 thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day (Mboe/d). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter production volume is pegged at 195.07 Mboe/d, which indicates year-over-year growth of 5.7%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MUR’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $664.74 million, indicating a decline of 12.35% from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating a decline of 78.38% from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MUR

Our model does not conclusively predict a likely earnings beat for MUR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

Murphy Oil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Murphy Oil Corporation price-eps-surprise | Murphy Oil Corporation Quote

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MUR’s Earnings ESP: MUR has an Earnings ESP of -4.54%.

MUR’s Zacks Rank: Murphy Oil currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider This Season

Here are some stocks in the same sector that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat this season.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ, Delek US Holdings DK and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG possess the right combination of two factors to report an earnings beat this season.

CNQ, DK and NOG’s Earnings ESP are currently pegged at +1.55%, +98.57% and +1.83% respectively. CNQ has a Zacks Rank #2 and DK and NOG carry a Zacks Rank #3 each. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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