5 Must-Read Analyst Questions From Carlyle's Q3 Earnings Call

Carlyle’s third quarter results drew a negative market reaction as the firm missed Wall Street’s revenue and profit expectations, driven by a 12.6% year-over-year decline in sales and weaker performance in private equity realizations. Management attributed the underperformance primarily to a quieter quarter for private equity exits and volatile public markets, while highlighting ongoing strength in credit and secondary solutions. CEO Harvey Schwartz acknowledged, “It’s just part of the private equity business. It’s hard to control when deals close, and it is what it is,” emphasizing the multi-quarter nature of deal activity and the focus on long-term trends over short-term results.

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While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Carlyle’s Q3 Earnings Call

• Brian Mckenna (Citizens): asked about the outlook for inflows by business and visibility into larger insurance transactions. CFO John Redett responded that momentum remains strong, particularly in credit and AlpInvest, and that the firm feels confident about achieving its revised full-year inflow targets.

• Alexander Blostein (Goldman Sachs): probed management on which growth priorities will be most impactful for 2026. CEO Harvey Schwartz pointed to opportunities across credit, insurance, and new wealth products, highlighting broad-based momentum.

• Glenn Schorr (Evercore): questioned the timing and magnitude of private equity realizations and their impact on future fee-related earnings. CFO John Redett explained that deal closings are inherently variable but emphasized a robust pipeline and strong recent performance in returning capital to investors.

• Brennan Hawken (BMO): asked about fee rate dynamics within the credit business. CFO Justin Plouffe noted that variability is often due to the mix of insurance transactions, but overall momentum is strong across all credit segments.

• Daniel Fannon (Jefferies): inquired about the diversity of global wealth flows and upcoming product launches. CEO Harvey Schwartz described the strategy’s early progress and outlined plans for new flagship wealth funds in 2026.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the closure and monetization of Carlyle’s $5 billion pipeline of private equity transactions, including the Medline IPO; (2) sustained growth and fee generation in asset-backed finance, direct lending, and insurance partnerships like Fortitude Re; and (3) the rollout and adoption of new evergreen wealth products. Execution against these milestones will be critical in assessing the durability of Carlyle’s earnings diversification strategy.

Carlyle currently trades at $52.40, down from $56.58 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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