OLED Q3 Deep Dive: Capacity Expansion and Blue OLED Progress Shape Outlook

OLED provider Universal Display (NASDAQ:OLED) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, with sales falling 13.6% year on year to $139.6 million. On the other hand, the company’s outlook for the full year was close to analysts’ estimates with revenue guided to $675 million at the midpoint. Its GAAP profit of $0.92 per share was 21.3% below analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy OLED? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

StockStory’s Take

Universal Display’s third quarter results drew a significant negative reaction from the market, as both revenue and GAAP earnings per share fell short of Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the shortfall to customer order timing, with pull-ins occurring earlier in the year and a $9.5 million out-of-period adjustment reducing royalty and license fees. CEO Steven Abramson noted that material sales remained steady year over year, but royalty revenues declined due to these timing effects. The company also pointed to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty as a factor contributing to softer-than-anticipated performance.

Looking forward, Universal Display’s guidance is anchored by expectations for a pickup in OLED adoption, especially as new display manufacturing capacity comes online. Management emphasized the upcoming commercialization of its phosphorescent blue emitter and the integration of newly acquired OLED patent assets as key drivers. CFO Brian Millard stated, “We are projecting continued growth, driven by new Gen 8.6 OLED fabs and increasing deployments in IT and automotive.” While management acknowledged persistent macroeconomic risks, they expressed confidence in the company’s positioning as the OLED industry enters a new growth cycle.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management identified timing shifts in customer orders, an out-of-period revenue adjustment, and ongoing R&D investments as primary influences on the quarter’s performance, while also highlighting strategic steps to bolster future growth.

• Customer order timing impact: Management explained that revenue was affected by significant customer pull-ins in the first half of the year, which reduced third quarter sales, rather than reflecting a drop in underlying demand.
• Royalty adjustment: The quarter included a $9.5 million out-of-period reduction in royalty and license fees, impacting overall revenue and margins beyond the typical business cycle.
• Patent asset acquisition: Universal Display announced a $50 million agreement to acquire OLED patent assets from Merck KGaA, aiming to strengthen its R&D capabilities and accelerate the development of high-efficiency OLED materials.
• Blue OLED development: The company continues to invest in its phosphorescent blue emitter, which management believes could deliver up to 25% greater energy efficiency and become a premium-priced product once commercialized.
• Expansion of AI-driven R&D: Management highlighted their expanded use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in material discovery, which is speeding up development cycles and broadening the portfolio of next-generation OLED materials.

Drivers of Future Performance

Universal Display’s outlook is shaped by anticipated OLED market expansion, new manufacturing capacity, and the launch of advanced materials, offset by macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving customer demand.

• Major capacity additions: Management expects new Gen 8.6 OLED manufacturing plants in Korea and China to drive increased material demand starting in 2026, with ramp-up activities and seeding processes providing early sales boosts ahead of mass production.
• Product innovation pipeline: The prospective commercialization of phosphorescent blue emitters and ongoing improvements in red, green, and host materials are expected to support premium pricing and broaden the company’s addressable market over the next several years.
• Market adoption and risks: While rising OLED adoption in IT, smartphones, and automotive is projected to fuel multi-year growth, management cited ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and variability in customer purchasing patterns as near-term risks.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be closely monitoring (1) the pace at which new Gen 8.6 OLED manufacturing facilities in Korea and China reach operational status, (2) any concrete progress or commercial milestones for Universal Display’s phosphorescent blue emitter, and (3) shifts in customer order patterns as indicators of underlying demand. Developments in IT and automotive OLED adoption will also be key signposts for sustained growth.

Universal Display currently trades at $115, down from $135.29 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

Our Favorite Stocks Right Now

Fresh US-China trade tensions just tanked stocks—but strong bank earnings are fueling a sharp rebound. Don’t miss the bounce.

Don’t let fear keep you from great opportunities and take a look at Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.