American Public Education to Report Q3 Earnings: Here's What to Know

American Public Education, Inc. APEI is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 10, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company reported adjusted loss per share, which came in narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 71.4% and against adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of one cent reported a year ago. The revenues topped the consensus mark by 1.1% and grew 6.5% year over year.

American Public Education’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 140.4%.

Trend in APEI’s Q3 Estimates

For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of adjusted loss per share has remained unchanged at nine cents over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a whopping 325% year-over-year decline from adjusted EPS of four cents.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $160.5 million, indicating a 4.8% improvement from $153.1 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

American Public Education, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American Public Education, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Public Education, Inc. Quote

Factors Likely to Define American Public Education’s Q3 Results

Revenues

The top-line performance of APEI is expected to have gained on the back of an increased number of students utilizing federal student aid and military-affiliated students utilizing education benefit programs. Besides, successful marketing efforts and the execution of enrollment strategies by the company are likely to have catalyzed the uptick. The positive trends are substantiated by the incremental enrollment trends of APEI across all its reportable segments, including the American Public University System segment or APUS (which accounted for 50.2% of total second quarter 2025 revenues), the Rasmussen University segment, or RU (36.6%) and the Hondros College of Nursing segment or HCN (11.1%).

For the quarter to be reported, American Public Education expects net course registrations in the APUS segment to be up year over year by 5-7% between 97,000 and 99,000. Enrollments are expected to increase year over year by 10% to 14,900 and 18% to 3,700 in the RU and the HCN segments, respectively. Under the RU segment, APEI expects on-ground healthcare enrollments to grow 12% year over year to 6,700 and Online enrollments to increase 11% to 8,200. 

The elevated demand for online education alternatives and skill-based or career-based programs, alongside increased demand for healthcare professionals, is expected to have benefited APEI’s growth prospects. The company expects third-quarter consolidated revenues to range between $159 million and $161 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 4-5%.

Our model expects net course registrations in the APUS segment to be up year over year by 5% to 97,162.

Earnings

The bottom-line performance of American Public Education is likely to have been drastically hit by inflated costs and expense structure, despite improvements in revenue growth. The costs & expenses are expected to have been elevated because of faculty compensation costs in the RU, APUS, and HCN segments, accompanied by increases in classroom and course materials costs in the RU and HCN segments. Moreover, increases in advertising costs in the APUS and HCN segments, and higher marketing support costs in the RU segment, added to the growing headwinds.

For the third quarter, APEI expects to report a loss per share between 15 cents and four cents. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $15 million and $17 million, up year over year by 16-32%.

Our model expects adjusted EBITDA to be up year over year by 30.1% to $16.8 million. We project total costs and expenses to increase 7.7% to $160.4 million compared with the year-ago quarter.

What the Zacks Model Says About American Public Education

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Public Education this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: APEI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: APEI stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the respective quarters to be reported.

Amer Sports, Inc. AS currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 1.

Amer Sports’ earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and met on the remaining one occasion, the average surprise being 83.9%. Amer Sports’ earnings for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to grow 78.6% compared with the prior year.

The RealReal, Inc. REAL has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The RealReal’s earnings topped estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining two occasions, a negative average surprise of 114.3%. The RealReal’s earnings for the third quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 55.6% compared with the prior year.

lululemon athletica inc. LULU currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

lululemon athletica’s earnings have topped in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.3%. lululemon athletica’s earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 are expected to tumble 22.7% compared to the prior year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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