1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 50% By the End of the Year, According to Michael Saylor of Strategy (MicroStrategy)

The good news for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is that it's still up about 10% for the year. The bad news, though, is that Bitcoin is definitely experiencing some intense turbulence right now. It's down nearly 20% during the past 30 days, and recently dipped below the psychologically important $100,000 price level.

Despite that, Bitcoin bulls continue to call for new highs before the end of the year. Chief among them is Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR). He's now calling for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 sometime within the next two months. And he's still expecting the world's most popular cryptocurrency to hit $1 million within the next decade. So is he right?

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin

There are several key catalysts for Bitcoin, according to Saylor. The biggest is institutional adoption. This refers to the willingness of big financial institutions and Wall Street banks to embrace Bitcoin. The more that they embrace Bitcoin, the more investment products they will create for customers, and the more they will help to cheerlead Bitcoin's upward price trajectory.

Image source: Getty Images.

According to Saylor, the involvement of big Wall Street banks in the crypto narrative has the potential to lead to a 10-fold increase in Bitcoin's price. That's enough to push Bitcoin from a price of $100,000 to $1 million. From there, the continued mainstreaming of Bitcoin on a global basis could put Bitcoin on a glide path to $20 million over the next two decades, Saylor says.

Moreover, Bitcoin treasury companies -- led by Strategy -- continue to accumulate Bitcoin at a prodigious pace. Strategy, for example, now has a whopping 641,205 bitcoins on its balance sheet, equivalent to roughly 3% of all Bitcoin in circulation. Continued demand from these companies is going to exert strong upward pressure on price.

Pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration

The pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration is also helping to generate significant tailwinds for Bitcoin. Pro-crypto advocates have been installed at key regulatory posts, and the Treasury Department has even gone so far as to call Bitcoin a strategic asset. In March, it helped plan a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to accumulate Bitcoin in the future.

That augurs well for the future of Bitcoin. Other nations have also taken steps to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves of their own, while also adopting pro-crypto legislation. In one speculative scenario, a Bitcoin arms race might break out, with nations racing to stockpile as much Bitcoin as they can.

Caveats for investors about Bitcoin

So what could possibly go wrong? As it turns out, a lot. Long-time Bitcoin investors are familiar with the boom-and-bust cycle that dominates crypto. Every four years, Bitcoin experiences a cataclysmic decline in price, sending skittish investors to the exits.

Almost exactly four years ago, Bitcoin began to crater, eventually leading to a 64% plunge in price in 2022. In 2018, Bitcoin suffered an even more severe tumble of 74%.

That's what makes the current Bitcoin situation so dicey. If history is any guide, the current Bitcoin four-year cycle should be ending sometime this year, or early next year at the very latest. It's quite conceivable that Bitcoin's rise to the $126,000 price level in early October was a final blow-off top, and it's all downhill from here for the next year or so.

What are the chances for Bitcoin to hit $150K?

At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that Bitcoin would easily double in price to hit the $200,000 mark in 2025. But that doesn't appear likely to happen. Michael Saylor -- arguably one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls on the planet, due to his firm's hefty stake in the cryptocurrency -- has seemingly already abandoned the $200,000 price target in favor of a $150,000 price target.

But even a price target of $150,000 may be too aggressive. Right now, in online prediction markets, traders are only giving Bitcoin less than a 10% chance of hitting that price point by the end of this year.

So if you're going to invest in Bitcoin now, be sure you're doing so for the long haul, and not because you're expecting a spectacular price recovery during the final two months of the year.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.