Lowe's Q3 Earnings Coming Up: Will LOW Extend Its Beat Streak?

As Lowe's Companies, Inc. LOW prepares to unveil its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Nov. 19, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $20.9 billion, implying 3.4% growth from the prior year. Meanwhile, the consensus mark for earnings has slipped by a couple of cents over the past seven days to $2.98 per share but still suggests a 3.1% increase from the year-ago period.

LOW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Mooresville, NC-based company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 2.4%.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lowe's Companies, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lowe's Companies, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Observe for LOW's Q3 Earnings

Lowe’s third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from ongoing momentum in its Pro-focused initiatives and disciplined execution of its “Total Home” strategy. The company’s strategic investments, particularly in expanding its Pro customer base, appear to be yielding steady traction as demand from professional contractors continues to outpace the broader DIY market. Lowe’s enhanced product assortments, stronger in-stock positions, and improved service capabilities through its loyalty program and job-site delivery enhancements are likely to have supported higher transaction volumes in the third quarter. Moreover, the integration progress of the recently acquired Artisan Design Group business has bolstered Lowe’s offerings.

Digital execution also remains a major driver of Lowe’s ongoing operating improvement. The company’s sustained investment in technology — through platforms like the Mirakl marketplace and the Mylow Companion app — is enhancing the customer experience and streamlining in-store operations. These digital capabilities not only improve order accuracy and fulfillment speed but also contribute to higher customer satisfaction and repeat business, particularly among Pro customers. In addition, the rollout of productivity-enhancing tools and AI-powered systems is likely to have continued to optimize labor and supply-chain costs.

Lowe’s ongoing Perpetual Productivity Improvement initiatives, aimed at lowering shrink and improving store-level execution, may have contributed to margins. Furthermore, robust cash generation and prudent capital allocation have provided financial flexibility, allowing Lowe’s to continue investing in growth areas such as distribution network improvements and Pro service capabilities.

However, the company’s third-quarter results may face headwinds from persistent macroeconomic pressures weighing on the broader home improvement market. Higher interest rates, subdued housing turnover, and stretched consumer affordability continue to temper discretionary renovation and big-ticket project spending. Moreover, soft DIY demand and stiff competition in certain categories could have tempered top-line momentum to an extent.

What the Zacks Model Says About LOW’s Q3 Earnings

As investors prepare for Lowe’s third-quarter announcement, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lowe’s this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Lowe’s has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -2.23%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.54% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share is pegged at 71 cents, implying a 22.4% year-over-year decline. 

Ollie's Bargain’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues stands at $615.7 million, which indicates an increase of 19% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.2%, on average.

Five Below, Inc. FIVE has an Earnings ESP of +74.71% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. FIVE’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $969.9 million, which suggests a 15% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Five Below’s third-quarter earnings is pinned at 22 cents a share, suggesting a decline of 47.6% from the year-ago quarter. FIVE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 50.5%, on average.

Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL has an Earnings ESP of +3.24% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. BURL’s top line is expected to advance year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.72 billion, which suggests a 7.5% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Burlington Stores’ third-quarter earnings stands at $1.59 per share, calling for 2.6% growth from the year-ago quarter. BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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