Tesla's 2026 Capex Plan: Betting Big on AI, Autonomy and Robots

Electric vehicle giant Tesla TSLA is in an investment-heavy phase as it pivots deeper into artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving and robotics. The company sees these frontiers as its next major growth engines and is preparing to spend aggressively to build the technology, capacity and infrastructure needed to lead in them.

For the current year, the company expects a capex of $9 billion, with $6.1 billion already spent in the first three quarters. This means that the company’s capex is likely to come around $2.8 billion in the fourth quarter. Having said that, capex for 2025 will come in lower than 2024 levels, but management has noted that 2026 will see a substantial jump as the company prepares for its next leg of growth.

This capex surge will be tied to three major areas— scaling AI initiatives (including the AI5 chip), ramping Optimus toward production and expanding vehicle and energy capacity (including Cybercab and Megapack programs).

Tesla will be spending heavily to build the infrastructure and technology required for these bets. The company highlighted that Optimus requires a vertically integrated supply chain because none exists today. It also noted that AI5 chip production will be supported by both Samsung and TSMC fabs in the United States. These developments are likely to push capex higher but boost its long-term prospects.

On the automotive side, Tesla wants to expand production and aims to achieve an annual output capacity of 3 million units in the next two years. This means new tooling, new factory investments and higher capacity across the supply chain. Energy growth adds another layer. Megapack demand remains strong, and Tesla is scaling new products like MegaBlock and Megapack 4, which require additional manufacturing investment.

Currently, the FCF and liquidity of the company are strong. In the third quarter of 2025, TSLA recorded FCF of around $4 billion, up 46% year over year. It exited the quarter with cash/cash equivalents/investments of around $41 billion.

The elevated spending will likely weigh on near-term free cash flow once the 2026 ramp begins. However, it will lay the foundation for new revenue lines that could define Tesla’s next decade.

Competitor Check: How GM and Ford Are Spending

U.S. legacy automakers General Motors GM and Ford F are also committing to their next-generation EV and AV strategies.

General Motors expects to spend $10-$11 billion in 2025, and much of this is tied to its push into electric and autonomous technologies. General Motors is investing in new battery cell plants and increasing U.S. vehicle production as part of its commitment to American manufacturing. Ford is projecting roughly $9 billion in 2025 capex. It plans to channel this toward expanding its EV footprint, including a new Universal EV platform designed for a family of affordable vehicles. Ford is also investing in new battery programs to support this lineup.

The Zacks Rundown on TSLA Stock

Shares of Tesla have declined 0.5% year to date as against the industry’s growth of 10%.

From a valuation standpoint, TSLA trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.57, above the industry and its own five-year average. It carries a Value Score of D.

See how the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s earnings has been revised over the past 90 days.

Tesla stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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