Qualcomm's Bulls Are Running Out of Room to Be Wrong

Shares of Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) were down another 2% early on Tuesday, Nov. 18, sliding below $163 as the broader market sell-off began to gain momentum. The move meant they had now erased all post-earnings gains from last month’s breakout, leaving the stock down more than 20% from its highs. Despite repeatedly beating expectations and expanding into AI and automotive markets, Qualcomm’s chart looks fragile once again.

For long-term investors, it’s a familiar story: strong fundamentals are overshadowed by a lack of market conviction. The bulls still believe this is just a pullback in a larger uptrend, while the bears see yet another false start—who’s going to win out? Let’s jump in and take a look. 

Bulls Still See Strength Beneath the Surface

To the bulls, Qualcomm’s long-term setup remains compelling, as long as you don’t look too closely at recent price action. The rising trendline that began in April is still technically intact, and the company’s fundamentals continue to look solid. The most recent quarterly report once again saw EPS and revenue come in ahead of expectations, while management issued solid forward guidance.

The company’s diversification is continuing to gain momentum, while its new AI strategy gives it a foothold in one of the hottest spaces in the market right now. These shifts have insulated the business from handset cycles and positioned it for more stable, recurring revenue growth.

From a valuation standpoint, the stock still trades at a discount to other large-cap semiconductor names. That combination of growth and relative value continues to attract bullish analysts, with the likes of Susquehanna rating Qualcomm a Buy earlier this month, echoing the move from Rosenblatt Securities, which called a price target of $225. From where the stock was trading early on Tuesday, that suggests a potential upside of more than 35%.

Bears Say It’s the Same Story Again

However, the bears have a simpler take: this is classic Qualcomm. Strong reports, bold growth promises, signs of a bullish breakout—and then another fade. The stock’s inability to hold above $180 or sustain October’s surge reinforces the perception that every breakout this stock tries to start quickly runs out of steam.

They’ll also argue that Qualcomm’s diversification narrative has been around for years, and while the execution may be improving, the market clearly wants to see more before rewarding it. That view has support in parts of Wall Street, with the team over at Wells Fargo urging caution with its Underweight rating earlier this month. Given the stock’s ongoing slide since then, that call is starting to look prescient.

Macro headwinds make things worse. With risk appetite fading, investors are becoming far more selective with their tech exposure. For those chasing pure AI plays, Qualcomm looks too uncertain right now—and it’s a fair question to ask: if the stock couldn’t hold onto gains when the market was at record highs, what happens to it when sentiment turns south?

Key Levels and Catalysts to Watch

Technically, the $160–$162 zone is now the key line in the sand. A break below would risk a move toward the mid-$150s, wiping out the uptrend that began in spring. Momentum indicators tell a mixed story. The RSI has drifted below neutral and towards oversold levels, while the MACD is also leaning negative. It’s hard to be excited about a rebound in the stock until either, if not both, of these indicators turn more bullish. 

However, it’s worth keeping in mind that there are still reasons for optimism. Qualcomm’s balance sheet remains strong, and its expanding presence in automotive and IoT continues to differentiate it from many of its AI-focused peers. If macro conditions stabilize, the stock could be one of the first to recover.

Either way, Qualcomm remains a stock defined by frustration. The fundamentals are there, the analyst support is there, and yet the price action is once again coming up short. If its stock can hold the current support line and avoid another breakdown, the bulls may still win this round—but with the momentum fading fast, they’re running out of room, and excuses, to be wrong.

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The article "Qualcomm’s Bulls Are Running Out of Room to Be Wrong" first appeared on MarketBeat.