Rate Cuts Back On? Markets Trade Like They Are

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Market index trading began flat this morning, but was able to cruise to a higher altitude on news consistent with easing the Fed funds rate going forward. Notes that President Trump’s current NEC Director Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to take over for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May of 2026 (if not sooner) is giving market participants permission to price in multiple rate cuts once again, perhaps starting next month.

The Dow, thus, grew +664 points today, +1.43%, and second only to the +2.14% gains in the small-cap Russell 2000 today. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq split the difference today, +0.91% and +0.67%, respectively. Session highs were reached later in the afternoon, but tapered as of the close. Indexes have rebounded nicely from near-term lows on Friday of last week.
 

Housing Data Mostly Cooling: Case-Shiller, Pending Home Sales

Earlier today, Case-Shiller Home Prices for September — not a delayed report from the government shutdown; Case-Shiller numbers are really reported that far in arrears — met expectations overall at +1.3%, following a downwardly revised +1.4% the previous month. This marks the fourth straight month where home prices have come in below overall inflation (+1.7% Inflation Rate in September). 

All 20 cities in the bigger survey were down month over month. Year over year, they were led by Chicago +5.5%, New York City +5.2% and Boston +4.1%. Those at the bottom of this list are Phoenix -2.0%, and both Dallas and Miami -1.3%. The 10-city survey gained +0.2% from a year ago; the 20-city +0.1%. While this is not terrific data for those looking to sell their homes, it’s welcome for an economy overall wary of looming inflation.

Pending Home Sales rose much higher than expected in October, to +1.9% month over month, from an upwardly revised +0.10% the prior month. They are still down year over year, -0.40%, but an improvement from the -0.90% reported last month. The Existing Home Price Average rose nearly $3000: $415.2K from $412.3K previously.
 

Softer Economic Reports Elsewhere: Consumer Confidence, Biz Inventories

We saw a big drop in the monthly Consumer Confidence index for November earlier today, with 88.7 falling from 95.5 sequentially, and the lowest we’ve seen since 85.7 in April. This latest consumer confidence survey was taken when the government shutdown showed no signs of abating, keep in mind — similar to the April figure coming in the wake of the “Liberation Day” tariff campaign.

Business Inventories for August — this one is a delayed report due to the shutdown — also slowed to 0.0%, as expected and now the third “unched” number on business inventories in the past five months. We haven’t seen a negative print on this metric since December of last year. And anyway, dwindling inventories isn’t necessarily a bad thing — it just means more good will be needed going forward.
 

Earnings Results After the Closing Bell: URBN, DELL & More

Urban Outfitters URBN kept retail earnings in an impressive range (after Abercrombie and Kohl’s hit home runs ahead of today’s open) after today’s close, with earnings of $1.28 per share easily surpassing the $1.19 in the Zacks consensus, on $1.53 billion in revenues, as the flagship brand grew 3x expectations, +12.5% in the quarter. Anthropologie also outperformed.

Dell Technologies DELL was mixed in its Q3 report this afternoon, beating estimates easily on the bottom line with earnings of $2.59 per share over the $2.48 expected. Revenues, though, missed expectations: $27.01 billion versus $27.27 billion anticipated. Full-year guidance was raised on strength in AI infrastructure solutions, but late-trading shares are -1% at this hour.

Hewlett Packard HPQ shares have fallen -5% on a revenue miss and a slight beat on fiscal Q4 earnings this afternoon. Earnings of 93 cents per share outpaced estimates by 2 cents, but $14.64 billion in sales was beneath the $15.02 billion projected. The low end of earnings guidance for both the ongoing quarter and full fiscal year were pulled down in the report.

Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research