A month has gone by since the last earnings report for UBS (UBS). Shares have added about 0.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UBS due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
UBS Group Q3 Earnings & Revenues Increase Y/Y, Expenses Decline
UBS Group reported a third-quarter 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of $2.48 billion compared with $1.43 billion in the prior-year quarter.
Results were driven by the strong performances of the Global Wealth Management, Asset Management and Investment Bank divisions. However, the decline in total assets was concerning.
Revenues & Expenses
The company’s third-quarter total revenues increased 3.5% year over year to $12.76 billion.
Operating expenses fell 4.4% year over year to $9.83 billion.
UBS Group reported total credit loss expenses of $102 million, which declined 15.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Business Divisions’ Performance
Global Wealth Management’s operating profit before tax was $1.35 billion, up from $1.09 million in the year-ago quarter.
Asset Management’s operating profit before tax was $218 million, up 44.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Personal & Corporate Banking reported operating profit before tax of $631 million, down 25.4% year over year.
The Investment Bank unit reported an operating profit before tax of $900 million, up from $405 million in the year-ago quarter.
Non-Core & Legacy incurred an operating loss before tax of $102 million in the reported quarter compared with a loss of $603 million in the year-ago quarter.
Group Items reported an operating loss before tax of $173 million against a profit of $45 million in the year-ago quarter.
Capital Position
Total assets fell 2.3% from the previous quarter’s end to $1.63 trillion.
UBS’s return on Common Equity Tier 1 capital was 13.5% as of Sept. 30, 2025, compared with 7.6% as of Sept. 30, 2024.
The risk-weighted assets declined 2.7% year over year to $504.9 billion.
The CET1 capital rose marginally year over year to $74.7 billion. As of Sept. 30, 2025, UBS's invested assets were $6.9 trillion, up 11.5% year over year.
Outlook
Management expects the Underlying Ro CET1 2026 exit rate is now expected to be around 15–16%, compared with the prior expectation of 15%.
The underlying cost-to-income ratio 2026 exit rate is expected to be less than 70%.
Management expects gross cost savings of around $13 billion by the end of 2026 compared with the 2022 combined cost base of UBS Group and Credit Suisse.
CET 1 capital ratio is expected to be around 14% and CET1 leverage ratio of greater than 4.0% by 2026.
Division Targets
The company expects the Global Wealth Management business to surpass $5 trillion of invested assets by 2028, with around $100 billion of net new assets in 2025.
Personal & Corporate Banking business is anticipated to witness an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 50% by the end of 2026.
Asset Management business is expected to register an underlying cost / income ratio of less than 70% by the end of 2026.
The Investment Bank is expected to register an underlying return on attributed equity of around 15% through the cycle, while the Non-core and Legacy business is now expected to have more than 95% of its positions closed by the end of 2026, compared with the prior expectation of reducing NCL risk-weighted assets to approximately $2 billion, with underlying operating expenses of around $1.8 billion and an underlying loss before tax of less than $1 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -39.22% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, UBS has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, UBS has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
UBS belongs to the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry. Another stock from the same industry, ICICI Bank Limited (IBN), has gained 0.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
ICICI Bank reported revenues of $3.33 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +2.6%. EPS of $0.39 for the same period compares with $0.39 a year ago.
ICICI Bank is expected to post earnings of $0.39 per share for the current quarter, representing no change from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.3%.
ICICI Bank has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
UBS Group AG (UBS): Free Stock Analysis Report ICICI Bank Limited (IBN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
