It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH). Shares have added about 2.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Methanex Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Methanex’sQ3 Earnings Miss Estimates as Average Realized Prices Fall
Methanex logged a third-quarter 2025 loss (attributable to shareholders) of $7 million or 9 cents per share. This compares unfavorably with a profit of $31 million or 35 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted earnings per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter were 6 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents.
Revenues fell roughly 0.9% year over year to $927 million in the quarter. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $974 million.
Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter fell around 11.6% year over year to $191 million.
Operational Highlights
Production in the quarter totaled 2,212,000 tons, up 64.2% year over year. Production also increased from the prior quarter due to additional production from Beaumont and Natgasoline after completing the OCI acquisition, and higher production from Geismar, Medicine Hat and New Zealand. The figure beat our estimate of 2,171,000 tons.
Total sales volume in the third quarter totaled 2,476,000 tons, down 5.6% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2,837,000 tons.
The average realized price for methanol was $345 per ton in the quarter, down from $356 per ton in the prior-year quarter. The figure matched our estimate.
Financials
Cash and cash equivalents were roughly $413.4 million at the end of the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $184 million in the quarter. The company returned $14.3 million to shareholders through dividends in the reported quarter.
Outlook
The company expects its 2025 production to be approximately 8 million tons, subject to fluctuation due to gas availability, scheduled maintenance, unexpected outages, or other unforeseen events.
The company expects higher adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025 than in the third quarter, owing to higher sales volume of produced methanol, offset by a modestly lower average realized price. Based on the prices stated in October and November, the company expects the average realized price to be between $335 and $345 per ton for these two months.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -10.92% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Methanex has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Methanex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Methanex is part of the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Over the past month, Dow Inc. (DOW), a stock from the same industry, has gained 0.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.
Dow Inc. reported revenues of $9.97 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -8.3%. EPS of -$0.19 for the same period compares with $0.47 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Dow Inc. is expected to post a loss of $0.45 per share, indicating a change of 0% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -8.8% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Dow Inc.. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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Methanex Corporation (MEOH): Free Stock Analysis Report Dow Inc. (DOW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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