Where Will D-Wave Quantum Be in 1 Year?

Quantum computing has been one of the more surprising stories on the stock market this year.

Interest in the emerging technology spiked late in 2024 after Alphabet said it had achieved a milestone with its Willow quantum computing chip. The timing was fortuitous as emerging technology stocks had already gotten a jolt following President Donald Trump's reelection, and little-known quantum computing stocks like D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing Inc. soared on the news after essentially being ignored.

As the chart below shows, after the initial rally late last year, those stocks have had mixed results in 2025. D-Wave Quantum has skyrocketed this year, while Quantum Computing Inc. is now in the red.

Data by YCharts.

As you can see, there's been a significant divergence among these four stocks. D-Wave isn't the biggest of the four -- that title belongs to IonQ -- but it has been the top performer this year.

D-Wave has delivered blowout gains through a combination of surging revenue growth and progress with its technology, though the company is still very small. Third-quarter revenue doubled but still amounted to just $3.7 million. Bookings enjoyed 80% sequential growth to $2.4 million.

D-Wave specializes in quantum annealing technology, a process that aims to find an answer to a problem by converting it to an energy-minimization problem.

In May, the company announced the general availability of Advantage2, its sixth-generation quantum computer, which management says can solve computationally complex problems beyond the reach of classical computers.

The launch of Advantage2 has helped stimulate interest in D-Wave as it announced a 10 million euro booking from a research facility in Italy, and it completed an Advantage2 system installation at Davidson Technologies in Huntsville, Alabama.

So investors have clearly been impressed by D-Wave's progress this year, but where will the company be this time next year? Let's take a closer look at the numbers.

Image source: Getty Images.

Where D-Wave Quantum goes from here

D-Wave Quantum didn't offer guidance for the fourth quarter, but the company is still building on a small base with $21.8 million of revenue through the first nine months of 2025.

Even with the progress from its Advantage2 computer, investors may want to temper their expectations for the stock next year. D-Wave continues to lose money as it invests in research and development; it reported a $27.7 million operating loss in the third quarter alone (and an adjusted net loss of $18.1 million). It also reported negative free cash flow of $55.8 million year to date.

Cash burn is a concern for any development-stage company, but D-Wave is well-capitalized with $836.2 million in cash on its balance sheet, which should fund operations at its current level for several years.

Looking ahead to 2026, management expects to deploy some of that cash to research and development, including the build out of its professional services and quantum computing as a service. Management sees its business growing in part through cloud software revenue streams like consulting and remote cloud service, meaning D-Wave would allow customers to access its quantum computers remotely, rather than purchasing their own.

The investor interest in the stock also gives D-Wave more flexibility to raise capital if its spending needs increase.

Still, like the rest of its quantum computing peers, D-Wave remains a high-risk stock as its market cap has risen to $8.1 billion despite a full-year revenue forecast of just $25.5 million. Its price-to-sales ratio is more than 300.

D-Wave and its peers are still years away from generating profits, and while quantum computing's improving utility and technological breakthroughs are promising, the current financial picture means patience will be required with the stock.

Shares have pulled back sharply since hitting their peak in October, but even with continued progress next year, it will take a lot to push the stock significantly higher.

Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.