Import Prices Turn Negative for First Time Since September

Economic & Earnings Commentary

New economic data is out this morning, some of it reflecting conditions prior to our current tariff realities. We also see Q1 earnings results continue to ramp up, but we won’t have the spigots open completely til next week. Pre-markets are down somewhat, following a +3/4-percent gain on the Dow and the S&P 500, +2/3-percent gain for the Nasdaq.

Import Prices Swing to Negative in March

Headline Import Prices for last month have arrived, marking the first monthly negative since September of last year: -0.1%. This is down from the +0.1% estimate and the prior two months up +0.4%. Subtracting volatile fuel prices, an “unched” headline, 0.0%, is down -30 basis points (bps) from estimates and the previous month’s headline.

Year over year, Import Prices reached +0.9%, 60 bps lower than the +1.5% anticipated by analysts and 110 bps lower month over month, from February. Keep in mind, this pricing was all conducted under the specter of a new tariff regime conditioning markets. It’s tough to know exactly how these numbers reflect this directly, but we expect to look back a few months and see clearly where tariff policy took hold.

Exports for March were also “unched” month over month, but still +2.4% year over year. This is now the third straight month with Exports at or above +2% — the strongest such trend since the end of 2022, and again likely reflecting methods of exporters getting ahead of April tariffs. We do not expect such benign levels when these metrics report a month from now.

Empire State Headline Improves for April

The latest Empire State survey, tracking New York state manufacturing for the month of April, posted a negative headline number, -8.1, which was an improvement from the -10.0 estimate and -20.0 reported for March, which was the lowest performance rate since a year-ago January. The last positive Empire State headline was January of this year: +5.7.

Q1 Earnings Roundup: BAC, JNJ & More

Bank of America BAC is the latest of the big Wall Street commercial banks to report Q1 earnings, and the company posted its 11th-straight earnings beat: earnings of 90 cents per share outpaced the Zacks consensus of 81 cents by +11%. Revenues of $27.37 billion in the quarter surpassed expectations by +1.89%. Shares are up +2% in early trading, working down some of the -16% loss year to date.

Pharmaceutical and household products maker Johnson & Johnson JNJ outperformed estimates on both top and bottom lines for its Q1 this morning, with earnings of $2.77 per share beating the Zacks consensus by 20 cents (and swinging to a profit year over year by 6 cents per share) on revenues of $21.89 billion — surpassing expectations by +1.26%. However, an unchanged earnings per share (EPS) guide for the full year is pulling shares down -1.5% in the news, after having grown +6% year to date

Back to the banks, Citigroup C also posted solid beats in its Q1 report this morning, with earnings of $1.96 per share bettering estimates by 12 cents per share and +21% from year-ago numbers. Revenues of $21.6 billion was a step ahead of the $21.18 billion in the Zacks consensus. Expenses for the quarter fell by -5% to $13.4 billion. Shares are up +1% in the pre-market, cutting into the -10% loss year to date.

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