FedEx Stock Battling Seasonality Ahead of Earnings

FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) is always in focus around the holidays. Despite upbeat Cyber Monday sales numbers this year, the logistics stock may stumble into 2026, after landing on a bearish seasonal table.

Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White compiled a list of the 25 best and worst stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in December, going back 10 years. FDX is the third worst performer on the list, averaging a 4.8% loss over the last decade, with only a 20% monthly win rate. Sector peer United Parcel Service (UPS) also landed on the list.

FedEx stock is up nearly 15% this quarter after encountering a familiar floor around $220 earlier in the fall. The shares were turned away last week at their year-to-date breakeven level, though, an area that could prove troublesome in the next three weeks.

FedEx's third-quarter report is also due out after the close on Dec. 18. The main explainer for the December underperformance is likely its post-earnings history. FedEx typically reports earnings late in the season, and has finished the next-day session lower in five of the last eight reports, including a 12.1% post-earnings drawdown in December 2023. 

Another post-earnings tumble could prompt a shift in analyst sentiment. Despite the underperformance, 18 of the 30 brokerages rate FDX a "buy" or better, with only two "strong sells" on the books.

Premium is expensive with earnings looming, so a premium-selling strategy could be the move going forward. FedEx stocks's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) checks in at 15 out of 100. This means the security has consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in.