It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Harley-Davidson (HOG). Shares have lost about 3.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Harley-Davidson due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Harley-Davidson Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates
Harley-Davidson reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.38. The company had reported earnings of 91 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The motorcycle manufacturer generated consolidated revenues (including motorcycle sales and financial services revenues) of $1.34 billion, up 17% from the prior-year quarter.
Segmental Highlights
Harley-Davidson Motor Company: Total revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment, constituting the bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, rose 23% on a year-over-year basis to $1.07 billion and topped our forecast of $1.02 billion on higher-than-expected motorcycle shipments. Motorcycle shipments worldwide increased 33% to 36,500 units and topped our estimate of 34,541 units. In the quarter under review, revenues from the sale of motorcycles came in at $822 million, up 34% year over year. The segment generated an operating income of $54 million, which fell 2% year over year.
During the reported quarter, Harley-Davidson retailed 34,000 motorcycle units globally, which declined 6% year over year but topped our expectations of 32,360 units. Its retail motorcycle units sold in North America decreased 5% to 23,500. Sales in EMEA or Europe, the Middle East and Africa declined 17% year over year. Sales in the Asia Pacific fell 3% while sales in Latin America rose 16% year over year.
Revenues from parts & accessories were down 4% from a year ago to $167 million, but beat our estimate of $165.3 million. Revenues from apparel rose 1% year over year to $56 million but fell short of our forecast of $57.5 million.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services: Revenues for Harley-Davidson Financial Services totaled $261 million. The figure declined 3% year over year. Operating income rose 472% to $439 million.
LiveWire: During the reported quarter, the total shipment for LiveWire was 184 units, rising 86% from the year-ago quarter levels. Revenues rose 16% to $6 million but missed our estimate of $9.3 million. Operating loss narrowed from $26 million to $18 million. The reported loss was slightly narrower than our projection of a loss of $18.6 million.
Financial Position
In the third quarter, selling, general and administrative expenses from the HDMC unit increased to $229 million from $208.7 million in the year-ago quarter. The company paid dividends of 18 cents per share. No shares were repurchased in the third quarter of 2025.
Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.78 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025. The long-term debt decreased to $3.15 million from $4.47 million recorded as of Dec. 31, 2024.
HOG Updates LiveWire Guidance
The company still withholds its 2025 HDMC financial outlook amid tariff uncertainties, but updates guidance for the LiveWire business.
For LiveWire, it now expects an operating loss of $72-$77 million compared with the previous estimate of a loss of $59-$69 million. It expects total cash usage of $50-$60 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -657.58% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Harley-Davidson has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Harley-Davidson belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry. Another stock from the same industry, General Motors (GM), has gained 8.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
General Motors reported revenues of $48.59 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.3%. EPS of $2.80 for the same period compares with $2.96 a year ago.
General Motors is expected to post earnings of $2.21 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.6%.
General Motors has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): Free Stock Analysis Report General Motors Company (GM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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