It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT). Shares have added about 10.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Allegiant Posts Loss in Q3
Allegiant Travel reported third-quarter 2025 loss of $2.09 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.84 per share. In the year-ago quarter, ALGT incurred a loss of $2.02 per share.
Operating revenues of $561.9 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $580.4 million and fell 0.1% on a year-over-year basis. Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (87.9%) of the top line, grew 1.1% on a year-over-year basis.
Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled services grew 8.7% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) grew 10.2% from the year-ago number. The load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) decreased to 84.3% from 85.6% in the reported quarter, as traffic growth did not outperform capacity expansion.
Airline operating costs per available seat miles, excluding fuel, fell 4.7% year over year to 8.47 cents. The average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) decreased 4.9% year over year to $2.55. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat mile fell to 11.19 cents from 12.21 cents a year ago.
ALGT’s Liquidity
As of Sept. 30, 2025, Allegiant’s total unrestricted cash and investments were $991.2 million compared with $852.7 million at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) totaled $1.78 billion compared with $1.77 billion at the prior-quarter end.
Allegiant’s Guidance for Q4 & 2025
For the fourth quarter of 2025, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 10% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to gain 9.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Adjusted earnings per share is anticipated to be in the $1.50 to $2.50 range. Third-quarter adjusted operating margin is expected to lie between 10% and 12%. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.55.
For 2025, adjusted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 are now expected to be above $3.00 (prior view: above $2.25). Adjusted EPS (airline) is now anticipated to be above $4.35 (prior view: above $3.25). For 2025, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 13% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to rise 12.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Adjusted EPS (airline) is anticipated to be above $4.35. Adjusted consolidated earnings per share for 2025 are expected to be above $3.00.
Interest expenses are forecasted to be in the range of $135-$145 million. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.55.
The company aims to expand its fleet size to 123 by 2025.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 58.26% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Allegiant Travel has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Allegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, American Airlines (AAL), a stock from the same industry, has gained 8.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.
American Airlines reported revenues of $13.69 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +0.3%. EPS of -$0.17 for the same period compares with $0.30 a year ago.
American Airlines is expected to post earnings of $0.54 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -37.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -11.9%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for American Airlines. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
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Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT): Free Stock Analysis Report American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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