Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Dollar Tree, Inc. on D Invests’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on DLTR. Dollar Tree, Inc.'s share was trading at $109.89 as of December 1st. DLTR’s trailing and forward P/E were 21.30 and 17.01 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Dollar Tree’s Investor Day on October 15th showcased a confident management team outlining the company’s transformation following the divestiture of Family Dollar. Now operating as a focused standalone banner, Dollar Tree projects 12–15% compounded EPS growth from FY26–28, with high-teens EPS growth in 2026 supported by receding discrete headwinds.

Recent performance has been steady, with 3.8% comparable store sales growth quarter-to-date and over 2.8 million shares repurchased for $271 million. The company’s renewed strategy centers on evolving from a single-price to a multi-price model, enabling greater assortment, improved margins, and broader appeal across income segments. Roughly 85% of items are still priced at $2 or less, preserving its value proposition while offering customers higher-quality, discretionary products.

Management is investing heavily in store modernization and technology to drive efficiency and profitability. AI-driven shelf optimization has already boosted per-store sales and planned refreshes and refurbishments of up to 3,125 stores annually aim to enhance customer experience. With strong vendor relationships and expanding store footprint, Dollar Tree leverages its scale to secure top-tier products at competitive prices.

The company plans 400 new stores annually and two new distribution centers to support its growth. Capital allocation priorities include continued repurchases and the potential introduction of a dividend, reflecting confidence in sustained free cash flow generation. Overall, Dollar Tree’s cultural, structural, and operational transformation positions it for stronger long-term profitability and market share gains, as management rebuilds the brand into a modern, data-driven, and resilient retail leader.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) by Acid Investments in March 2025, which highlighted that the Family Dollar divestiture would unlock DLTR’s core profitability and valuation upside. The stock has appreciated about 58.77% since as the thesis played out. D Invests shares a similar view but focuses on DLTR’s post-divestiture transformation.

Dollar Tree, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 59 hedge fund portfolios held DLTR at the end of the second quarter which was 67 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of DLTR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.