McDonald's (MCD) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for McDonald's (MCD). Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is McDonald's due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

McDonald's Q3 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat Estimates

McDonald's reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results, wherein earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beat the same. On a year-over-year basis, the top line increased, but the bottom line declined.

McDonald’s performance was supported by steady momentum across all segments, driven by strong value offerings, menu innovation and effective marketing that attracted customers. The company continued to focus on delivering affordability and everyday value, reinforcing brand strength and customer loyalty in a challenging environment.

MCD’s Earnings & Revenue Discussion

In third-quarter 2025, McDonald's reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.35. Adjusted earnings declined 1.5% year over year.

Quarterly net revenues of $7,078 million beat the consensus mark of $7,067 million. Additionally, the top line rose 3% year over year.

At company-operated restaurants, sales were $2.56 billion, down 3% year over year. Sales at franchise-operated restaurants amounted to $4.36 billion, which increased 7% year over year. Moreover, Other revenues rose 22% year over year to $151 million. Our model predicted sales by company-operated restaurants to decline 0.8%, while franchise-operated restaurants to increase 3.8% from the prior-year levels.

McDonald's Comps Details

In the quarter under discussion, global comps rose 3.6% against a 1.5% decline in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate was a 3.5% increase year over year.

Comps Across MCD’s Segments

The United States: In the third quarter, segmental comps rose 2.4% compared with 0.3% growth registered in the prior-year quarter. The company's comparable sales for the quarter were aided by positive check growth. Our model estimated the U.S. comps to increase 2.8%.

International Operated Markets: Segmental comps jumped 4.3% against a decline of 2.1% in the year-ago quarter. The rise was driven by positive comparable sales across all markets. We anticipated an increase of 3.9% from the year-ago levels.

International Developmental Licensed Segment: Segmental comparable sales registered a 4.7% increase in contrast to the 3.5% decline in the prior-year quarter. Japan led the growth in positive comparable sales, with all global regions also reporting increases.

Operating Highlights & Expenses of McDonald's

In the third quarter, McDonald’s total operating costs and expenses were $3.72 billion, up 1% year over year.

Operating income rose 5% year over year to $3.36 billion. Net income totaled $2.28 billion, up 1% year over year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, McDonald's has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, McDonald's has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

McDonald's belongs to the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry. Another stock from the same industry, BJ's Restaurants (BJRI), has gained 8.2% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.

BJ's Restaurants reported revenues of $330.16 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +1.4%. EPS of $0.04 for the same period compares with -$0.13 a year ago.

BJ's Restaurants is expected to post earnings of $0.59 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +25.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +6.9%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for BJ's Restaurants. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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