CME Group Inc. (CME): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on CME Group Inc. on The Diversified Fins Analyst’s Substack by Collin Cook. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CME. CME Group Inc.'s share was trading at $278.99 as of December 1st. CME’s trailing and forward P/E were 27.03 and 24.10 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

CME Group reported mixed 3Q25 results with total net revenue of $1.54B, down 9% sequentially and 3% year-over-year, driven primarily by weaker clearing and transaction fees, which fell 12% Q/Q and 5% Y/Y to $1.23B. Market data revenue rose 2% Q/Q to $203M while operating expenses increased modestly to $405M, pressuring margins, which declined to 68.4%.

Adjusted EPS of $2.68 was flat year-over-year but 2% above consensus, supported by stronger non-operating income of $214M. Trading volumes softened, with total futures and options ADV down 16% Q/Q to 25.3M, while RPC improved 2% sequentially to $0.702 on a better product mix. BrokerTec and EBS revenues were $39M and $31M respectively, reflecting mixed demand across fixed income and FX markets.

Management lowered its full-year expense guidance by $10M to $1.625B, citing reduced Google migration and professional services costs. The company also closed the OSTTRA sale, yielding $1.5B in proceeds, and will soon decide between deploying capital toward a special dividend—consistent with past practice—or initiating buybacks under its newly authorized program. CME announced a 3.5% increase in market data pricing effective January 2026.

On strategic themes, CME reiterated its readiness to support FanDuel-related prediction markets if regulators approve them, expressed caution over certain election contracts, and emphasized its ongoing work with Google on tokenization of cash for collateral, enabling 24/7 trading infrastructure. Management continues to focus on retail distribution efficiency, balancing organic growth with selective M&A opportunities.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on CME Group Inc. by Magnus Ofstad in January 2025, which highlighted CME’s leadership in derivatives trading and tailwinds from interest rate volumes. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 17.74% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out as trading volumes stayed resilient. Collin Cook shares a similar but with more emphasis on Q3 earnings and strategic outlook.

CME Group Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 75 hedge fund portfolios held CME at the end of the second quarter which was 73 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CME as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.