Where Will Quantum Computing Stock Be in 1 Year?

Quantum Computing (NASDAQ: QUBT), also known as QCI, made the jump from the over-the-counter market to the Nasdaq on July 15, 2021. It opened at $6.60 per share that day, but it eventually sank to a record low of $0.42 on July 1, 2024.

But today, QCI trades at about $12 -- so a $1,000 investment at its all-time low would have grown to nearly $28,600 in just over a year. Let's see why this emerging quantum computing stock is attracting so much attention and where it might be headed over the next year.

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Understanding the quantum computing market

Standard computers still store zeros and ones separately in binary bits. Quantum computers can store those zeros and ones simultaneously in qubits, which allows them to process more data and certain computing tasks at a much faster rate than their classical counterparts.

But for now, quantum computers are still much larger, pricier, and consume more power than standard computers. They also tend to make more mistakes. That's why they're still mainly used for niche government and research projects instead of mainstream computing applications.

To address those issues, quantum computing companies are trying to make those systems smaller, cheaper, and more power-efficient. Yet there isn't a clear consensus regarding how to achieve those goals.

Most of the early movers in the quantum computing market -- including IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) -- accelerate electrons through "superconducting loops" to process data. These systems are easier to manufacture, but they're big and expensive to operate because they need to be cryogenically refrigerated.

Other companies -- most notably IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) -- "trap" ions and manipulate them with tiny lasers to process that data. These smaller systems don't need to be refrigerated, but they can also be expensive to operate because their delicate lasers need to be constantly recalibrated.

What sets QCI apart from its competitors?

QCI doesn't dabble with electrons and ions. Instead, it develops photonic quantum chips -- which process data by beaming light through chips, fibers, and optical circuits. These chips can function at room temperature and can be easily manufactured by conventional chip fabricators.

In theory, QCI's photonic chips can be cheaper, more scalable, and require less maintenance than trapped ion systems. But for now, they're still more expensive to manufacture, produce more errors, and must be paired with big external optical systems.

QCI opened its first foundry this May and finally started shipping its first chips, but it only generated $484,000 in revenue in the first nine months of 2025. Most of that revenue came from its professional service contracts with commercial and government customers, but it also started to recognize some revenue from its cloud-based Dirac-3 quantum-as-a-service platform this year.

For the full year, analysts expect it to generate $777,000 in revenue with a net loss of nearly $24 million. With a market cap of $2.7 billion, QCI stock trades at 3,481 times this year's sales. By comparison, IonQ and Rigetti trade at 159 times and 1,134 times this year's sales, respectively. All three of these quantum computing stocks are speculative -- but QCI still seems the most overvalued relative to its near-term growth potential.

What are QCI's longer-term catalysts?

QCI is currently planning the construction of its second fab, which it aims to start building within the next three years. In the meantime, it expects to refine its manufacturing processes, ramp up its small-batch production, expand its workforce, and demonstrate its performance capabilities at its first fab.

Yet QCI doesn't expect to mass-produce its chips until its second fab opens. So over the next year, most of its modest revenue will still come from its professional service contracts and cloud-based services. It will also likely need to raise more cash by issuing more debt and secondary offerings. For 2026, analysts expect QCI's revenue to surge 169% to $2.1 million as its net loss widens to $40.5 million.

Where will QCI's stock be in a year?

QCI has a lot of growth potential, but it still has plenty of hurdles to clear. It must scale up its business, reduce its production costs, and prove that its photonics chips are actually cheaper and more scalable than electron or ion-based systems.

It faces an uphill battle against those entrenched players, and it could easily run out of money before it reaches the mass production stage. It also faces competition from smaller photonics companies like Xanadu and PsiQuantum.

QCI's stock might go through some wild swings over the next year, but I don't think those gains will be sustainable. Instead, I believe it will either trade sideways or slip lower unless it demonstrates some big technological breakthroughs or lands some huge new contracts.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends International Business Machines and IonQ. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.