Progressive's Q1 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat Estimates

By Zacks Equity Research | April 16, 2025, 1:31 PM

The Progressive Corporation’s PGR first-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.65 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.72. The bottom line, however, increased 24.6% year over year. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Behind the Headlines

Net premiums written were $22.2 billion in the quarter, up 17% from $19 billion a year ago. 

Net premiums earned grew 20% to $19.4 billion. The reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.2 billion. 

Operating revenues increased 20.7% year over year to $20.6 billion, driven by 20.2% higher net premiums earned, a 31.7% increase in net investment income, a 21.6% rise in fees and 32.1% higher service revenue. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.4 billion.

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Progressive Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Progressive Corporation Quote

Total expenses increased 20.1% to $64.7 billion, attributable to 16.7% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, an 18.2% increase in policy acquisition costs and a 40.8% surge in other underwriting expenses.

Net realized loss on securities was $212 million versus a gain of $156 million in the year-ago quarter.

Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — improved 10 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 86.

March Policies in Force

Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 18% from the year-ago month’s figure to 35.1 million. Special Lines improved 9% to 6.6 million.

In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 18% year over year to 10.1 million, while Direct Auto increased 25% to 14.8 million.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 6% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 11%.

Financial Update

Progressive’s book value per share was $49.39 as of March 30, 2025, up 32.6% from $33.80 as of March 30, 2024.

Return on equity in March 2025 was 39.3%, up from 34% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 480 bps to 19.2.

Zacks Rank

Progressive currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Upcoming Releases

RLI Corporation RLI will report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 90 cents, suggesting a decrease of 5.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

RLI’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing in one.

Chubb Limited CB will report first-quarter 2025 results on April 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $3.26 per share, indicating a decrease of 39.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

W.R. Berkley Corporation WRB will report first-quarter 2025 results on April 21, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.01, suggesting a decrease of 2.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

WRB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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RLI Corp. (RLI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Chubb Limited (CB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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