Opendoor Stock's Fork in the Road: What Matters Most in 2026

Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN) is still down significantly from its 2021 peak, but it has been a massive winner in 2025. The stock is up by more than 340% since January, with much of those gains coming in the summer after a hedge fund manager posted about the stock on social media.

The iBuying company is attempting to bring the click-and-buy e-commerce experience to the housing market. It has been a tough battle thus far. High mortgage rates have hindered homebuyers, and there has been considerable turnover at Opendoor itself.

The upcoming year is shaping up as somewhat of a fork in the road. Opendoor's new CEO has set bold goals, and the company's ability to execute could determine whether the stock continues to build on its impressive 2025 gains or relinquishes them instead.

Launching Opendoor 2.0

If you're unfamiliar with Opendoor, the company has garnered attention for its iBuying model, which allows people to buy or sell homes online. Opendoor has continued to push this model, even as competitors like Zillow abandoned the idea. Opendoor has yet to consistently operate profitably, and the struggles have led to leadership changes at the top of the company.

Image source: Getty Images.

New CEO Kaz Nejatian outlined a three-point plan during Opendoor's third-quarter earnings report. This plan could enable the business to turn a profit. Opendoor's path to profitability includes:

• Buying and selling more homes
• Turning those homes over faster
• Controlling expenses as the business grows

Opendoor depends on debt to finance its home purchases. Ideally, Opendoor would buy and sell enough homes quickly enough to earn enough to cover its cost of capital (the money it borrows to purchase homes), plus its other operating expenses.

Here is what matters for 2026

Investors will want to examine Opendoor's EBITDA and net income, as well as their trends throughout 2026. Over the past four quarters, Opendoor has had an EBITDA loss of $149 million and a net income loss of $317 million. That's on $4.7 billion in revenue. Those losses need to shrink as Opendoor ramps up its revenue with more home transactions.

Opendoor had ramped up its growth once before, immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic, when trailing 12-month revenue peaked at $16.5 billion. However, interest rates rose rapidly to counter inflation, which cooled the housing market, and Opendoor took heavy losses on a large cohort of homes it had overpaid for.

Fortunately, mortgage rates are already high, and the Trump administration appears to be intent on loosening up what is currently a slow housing market. Opendoor is a very speculative stock with a high ceiling and a low floor.

But if Opendoor can execute its new plan and the housing market rebounds, the company may finally realize its full potential.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Zillow Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.