Will Falling Gold Production Weigh on Newmont's Q4 Performance?

Newmont Corporation NEM saw lower gold production for the third quarter of 2025, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decline in gold production for the third quarter, reaching 1.42 million ounces. This marked the third straight quarter of sequential production decline. 

The lower production was due to reduced grades and planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the end of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. NEM’s strategic asset sales, aimed at sharpening focus on Tier-1 operations, have also weighed on production. Its transition to a high-quality, Tier-1 portfolio is a long-term strategy focused on reliability and efficiency. 

Newmont anticipates maintaining its expected gold production for 2025 at about 5.9 million ounces. For the fourth quarter, the company expects attributable production to be relatively in line with the third quarter, as new production from Ahafo North and increased output from the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture are expected to be offset by lower production at Yanacocha and lower grades at Ahafo South. NEM expects fourth-quarter production of 1.415 million ounces, indicating a roughly 25% year-over-year decline. The production decline could undercut the profitability goals for 2025.

Looking across the competitive landscape, Barrick Mining Corporation B saw a 12% year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2025 gold production to 829,000 ounces. Lower year-over-year production, mainly due to the suspension of operations at Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the year-over-year rise in its unit costs. Barrick reiterated its attributable gold production outlook in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, and expects production to be in the lower end of the range.  

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited’s AEM payable gold production was 866,963 ounces in the third quarter, up from 863,445 ounces in the prior-year quarter. For full-year 2025, Agnico Eagle maintained gold production expectations between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces. Production in the first nine months of 2025 was roughly 77% of the midpoint of Agnico Eagle’s full-year guidance.

The Zacks Rundown for NEM

Shares of Newmont have shot up 70.5% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s rise of 56.8%, largely driven by the gold price rally.

From a valuation standpoint, NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.2, a roughly 4.6% premium to the industry average of 13.57X. It carries a Value Score of B.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 74.1% and 16.6%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

NEM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research