The 12 Days of Christmas (on Wall Street)

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, Dec, 14.

By the time you read this, there will be 12 days until Christmas, and I am nothing if not predictable with the themes on here. My Christmas shopping is done (!), there’s snow in the Nasty Nati, and Festivus is right around the corner. Time to celebrate with an investing-themed ditty!

A (Weed) Cartridge in a Pear Tree

Pears are green. So are partridges. And now, so are weed stocks! I did not have the loosening of marijuana restrictions on my Friday bingo card, but here we are. Old friends Tilray (TLRY), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), and Cronos Group (CRON) all made double-digit moves to end the week. I’m old enough to remember when cannabis stocks were supposed to be The Next Big Thing.

But even with Friday's pop, few U.S.-listed cannabis stock are in the black on the year. All of the big hitters have similar sentiment backdrops; modest short squeeze potential, a slew of call activity, and not much analyst coverage. That’s usually the recipe for an intriguing sector. But fool me once. A broader loosening of state regulations five years ago did little good for the equities. While fast-tracking the decriminalization may open up some more investment, it’s a long road back to profit town.

Two Turtle (Fed) Doves

This one’s a layup. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), is per Bloomberg the frontrunner to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Hassett said only last week that he would cut interest rates “right now” if he was in charge at the Fed. He’d take over a house divided.

Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), five have expressed opposition or skepticism toward additional rate cuts, while three members of the Board support a rate cut. Since 2019, there has not been a meeting with three or more dissenting votes at the FOMC. A decision on the next Fed Chair is expected before Christmas, and the thought of a Trump sycophant running the independent central bank is…something to monitor.

Three French Hens

This is a reach. But hey, the French know fashion! I found this article on luxury shoppers very affirming of a shift I think will occur in 2026. Customers want authenticity, to feel “in” on something, and to make their investment last. Fashion stock and Coach parent Tapestry Inc (NYSE:TPR) quietly hit a record high of $125.18 on Friday and is now up 90% in 2025. Breaking out of a double top at $120, the consensus 12-month price target of $122.22 is a 1.6% discount from its current perch.

Yeah, its 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deeply overbought. But TPR is one of the best stocks to own in the last half of December, historically. Factor in implied volatilities (IV) low and a Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 91, and it’s a perfect setup for short- and long-term options traders that insulates you from the tech bruhaha.

Four Calling Birds (aka drones, since birds aren’t real)

I think drone stocks and eVTOLs are a fascinating, scalable sector with massive potential down the road. But short term, premier drone maker AeroVironment, Inc (NASDAQ:AVAV) had a no-so-great week. A 12.9% post-earnings drawdown on Wednesday snowballed into a 4.3% drop on Friday amid the broader tech pullback. AVAV is now testing its 200-day moving average, and the pullback has flushed its 14-Day RSI. The quarterly report in of itself wasn’t a catastrophe, and Blue Halo acquisition looks like it will pay long-run dividends.

Five Gold Rings

We all know gold’s (and silver’s!) story by now. The safe-haven asset hit a seven-week high on Friday, taking gold miners with it. We return to the well once more with Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), the standard-bearer of gold miners, flashing a bullish signal.

NEM popped 5.3% on Thursday and nabbed a record high of $102.13 on Friday before pivoting lower. Even after the pullback, the shares are above the top band of their 20-day Bollinger Bands for the first time in 21 trading days. Per Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the past 11 times this occurred, NEM has averaged a 21-day return of 4.4%.

Factor in all of the broad market craziness, and a 14-Day RSI away from the danger zone, and it should be a December to remember for Newmont stock.

Six Geese A-Laying

Another punny layup. Trading around $12, Canada Goose Holdings Inc (NYSE:GOOS) is a far cry from its 2018 highs above $70. But the shares have pulled back to their 126-day (half a year) moving average. Four similar occurrences in the last 10 years have resulted in an average monthly return of 10.9%, with a 100%-win rate.

Seven (Black) Swans a Swimming

I’m not going to sit here and predict a Black Swan event in the near future. The crypto correction to start the month sure ruffled a lot of feathers though. And while you can roll your eyes at Bitcoin bulls, you also have to honor the technicals.

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