Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI): A Bear Case Theory

We came across a bearish thesis on Rigetti Computing, Inc. on wallstreetbets subreddit by  dnr41418. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RGTI. Rigetti Computing, Inc.'s share was trading at $23.96 as of December 16th.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., through its subsidiaries, builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors the United States, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. RGTI faces significant near-term downside as multiple ETF rebalances converge this Friday, December 19th, creating intense forced selling pressure. The $3.2 billion Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) alone must liquidate $30 million of RGTI shares and $10 million of IONQ, and several other ETFs holding RGTI are rebalancing simultaneously, compounding the effect.

This mechanical, non-speculative event comes at a particularly vulnerable time for RGTI, a stock with a low float that has run up over the quarter despite negative earnings and an unreasonably high price relative to fundamentals. Insider activity further underscores the lack of confidence in the company; there have been no insider purchases since June 2022, recent sales occurred as recently as December 10th, and notably, the CEO holds no shares, signaling internal skepticism about the company’s prospects.

RGTI’s fundamentals are extremely weak, with a $10 billion market capitalization generating less than $2 million in revenue last quarter while burning through $43.6 million in cash over nine months, sustained primarily through retail share sales. The convergence of ETF-driven selling, ongoing insider exits, and negligible operational performance sets the stage for a sharp market correction.

Investors should expect a severe, potentially sudden decline in RGTI’s stock as these forces collide, creating a high-risk environment for existing shareholders. The forced liquidation, combined with fundamental disconnects and lack of insider support, positions RGTI for a pronounced and immediate downward adjustment in price.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) by Kai Timmermann in January 2025, which highlighted the company’s ion-trap technology, growing revenue, strategic contracts, and acquisition potential despite negative margins. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 64.19% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as IonQ continues to innovate. dnr41418 shares a contrarian view on Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), emphasizing forced ETF selling, insider exits, and weak fundamentals, showing the risks another quantum player faces despite similar industry positioning.

Rigetti Computing, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 25 hedge fund portfolios held RGTI at the end of the third quarter which was 17 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of RGTI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.