Can Higher-Dose Wegovy Help Novo Nordisk Regain Obesity Market Share?

Novo Nordisk NVO is a leading player in the obesity market, driven by its blockbuster GLP-1 therapy Wegovy (semaglutide). However, despite being a core growth driver, Wegovy’s sales momentum has slowed in recent quarters. The deceleration is primarily attributed to intensifying competition in the GLP-1 space, most notably from its arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY, as well as the widespread use of compounded semaglutide in the United States.

Eli Lilly’s competing obesity therapy, Zepbound (tirzepatide), has been steadily gaining market share in the U.S. obesity market. This momentum is supported by results from Lilly’s head-to-head SURMOUNT-5 study, which demonstrated superior efficacy for Zepbound compared with Wegovy.

In the phase IIIb 72-week study, the two highest doses of Zepbound led to an average weight loss of 20.2% of body weight in adults with obesity or overweight compared with 13.7% for the two highest doses of Wegovy, representing a 47% greater relative weight loss for Zepbound users. Additionally, 31.6% of those taking Zepbound achieved a weight loss of at least 25% of their body weight compared with 16.1% for Wegovy users.

To swing the balance in its favor, Novo Nordisk is currently seeking approval for a 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy, which it claims provides an option for “greater weight loss potential” than what is being offered by the available doses. In NVO’s phase III STEP UP study, obesity patients receiving the 7.2 mg dose of Wegovy for 72 weeks achieved an average weight loss of 20.7% compared with 2.4% with placebo and 17.5% with a 2.4 mg Wegovy dose. The observed weight loss with Wegovy 7.2 mg is higher than that achieved with Lilly’s Zepbound in the SURMOUNT-5 study, both over 72 weeks and in obesity patients without diabetes.

Notably, 33.2% of patients in the STEP UP study who received the 7.2 mg dose achieved at least a 25% weight loss at 72 weeks compared with 16.7% in the 2.4 mg dose group. Thus, a higher percentage of patients also achieved this goal compared to those with Zepbound in the SURMOUNT-5 study.

Based on the encouraging STEP UP study results, Novo Nordisk has filed regulatory applications for Wegovy 7.2 mg, which are currently under review in both the United States and the EU. The advisory committee to the regulatory body in the EU recently adopted a positive opinion recommending the approval of the higher dose. NVO expects a final decision from both regulatory bodies early in 2026.

If approved, Wegovy 7.2 mg could meaningfully strengthen Novo Nordisk’s competitive position in obesity treatment. The improved efficacy profile could prompt physicians and patients to reconsider treatment choices, potentially shifting demand away from Lilly’s Zepbound toward the higher-dose Wegovy. As a result, regulatory approval of Wegovy 7.2 mg may help Novo Nordisk recapture market share, support pricing power, and reaccelerate Wegovy sales, improving the company’s growth trajectory in the obesity franchise.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space. Despite being on the market for less than three years, Mounjaro (for diabetes, competing directly with NVO's Ozempic) and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first nine months of 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $24.8 billion, accounting for 54% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues.

Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX, are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics is developing its dual GIPR/GLP-1 RA, VK2735, both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. In June, VKTX started two late-stage studies evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735. While one of these studies recently completed enrolment at a rapid pace, Viking Therapeutics expects to complete enrolment in the other study by the first quarter of 2026.

NVO Stock’s Price, Valuation & Estimates

In the past six months, Novo Nordisk shares have plunged 35.4% against the industry’s 18.3% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.44 forward earnings, which is lower than 17.18 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Earnings estimates for 2025 have deteriorated from $3.66 to $3.57 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2026 earnings estimates have declined from $3.91 to $3.55.

NVO Estimate Movement

Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research