Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. on Levered Longhorn substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HOG. Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s share was trading at $21.25 as of December 16th. HOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 5.09 and 6.76 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. HOG presents a compelling deep-value opportunity, trading below tangible book value and implying that the market assigns little to no value to one of the most recognizable brands in global motorcycling.

Founded in 1903, Harley-Davidson is synonymous with American motorcycling culture and commands a level of brand loyalty that few consumer discretionary companies can match. Despite this, the stock’s valuation suggests that the company’s intangible assets, including its brand and financing arm, are being priced at effectively zero, reflecting investor pessimism rather than intrinsic worth.

The discount stems from a combination of self-inflicted and cyclical challenges. Prior management decisions, including heavy investment in the LiveWire electric motorcycle segment and insufficient focus on dealer relationships, weighed on execution, while attempts to broaden appeal toward younger demographics diluted focus on Harley’s core customer base.

At the same time, macro headwinds have pressured demand, as higher interest rates and weak consumer sentiment have reduced appetite for highly discretionary purchases like motorcycles. These factors pushed sentiment toward extremes, even as recent leadership changes signal a renewed emphasis on core operations and profitability.

Investor concern also followed Harley-Davidson’s decision to sell a 10% stake in Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). While the transaction reduces future earnings contribution, it brings in KKR and PIMCO, transfers $4 billion of loans off balance sheet, and meaningfully de-risks the business while leaving operational control intact. Given that HDFS still generates substantial value and has been validated by sophisticated institutional investors, the market reaction appears excessive.

On a sum-of-the-parts basis, Harley-Davidson’s tangible book value, financing arm, and brand equity suggest material upside. Even after applying conservative assumptions and a substantial valuation haircut, intrinsic value approaches the low-$30s per share, implying 50%+ upside. While risks around consumer demand and execution remain, the combination of asset backing, brand monopoly, and valuation discount creates an attractive long-term, Buffett-style investment setup.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) by Business Model Mastery in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s integrated lifestyle ecosystem, dealer network, brand moat, and high-margin financing and accessories. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 14% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Harley’s brand loyalty remains strong. Basic_Net_7047 shares a similar view but emphasizes tangible book value and sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 30 hedge fund portfolios held HOG at the end of the third quarter which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of HOG as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.