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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Jack In The Box (JACK). Shares have added about 27% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Jack In The Box due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Jack in the Box reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and revenues surpassing the same. Both metrics decreased on a year-over-year basis.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) were 30 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. The metric fell 74.1% from $1.16 per share reported in the prior-year quarter.
Quarterly revenues of $326.2 million surpassed the consensus mark of $321 million. The top line also declined 6.6% on a year-over-year basis due to lower sales volume in both brands and the Del Taco refranchising transactions.
Franchise rental revenues decreased 7.6% year over year to $80.7 million. Franchise royalties and other revenues decreased 4.4% year over year to $52.1 million.
Franchise contributions to advertising and other services revenues declined 9.3% year over year to $50.9 million. Company restaurant sales in the quarter were $142.5 million, down from $151.4 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
In the quarter under review, company-owned same-store sales decreased 5.3% against a decrease of 2.2% reported in the prior-year quarter.
Same-store sales at franchised stores decreased 7.6% against a 2% decline reported in the prior-year quarter.
Systemwide same-store sales dropped 7.4% compared with a 2.1% decrease reported in the year-ago quarter.
In fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, company-owned same-store sales moved down 3.1% year over year, comprising the decline in franchise same-store and system-operated same-store sales of 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, the total restaurant-level adjusted margin was 16.1% compared with 18.5% reported in the prior-year quarter.
The total franchise level margin was 38.9% in the fiscal fourth quarter, down from 40.4% reported in the prior-year quarter.
In the quarter under review, selling, general and administrative expenses accounted for 11.2% of total revenues, up from 8.6% in the prior-year quarter.
As of Sept. 28, 2025, cash totaled $51.5 million compared with $24.7 million as of Sept. 29, 2024. Long-term debt (net of current maturities) totaled $1.67 billion as of Sept. 28, 2025, compared with $1.7 billion as of Sept. 29, 2024.
Jack in the Box did not repurchase any shares of its common stock during the fiscal fourth quarter. For the full year 2025, the company repurchased 0.1 million shares, which cost $5.0 million. As of Sept. 28, 2025, it still had $175 million available under its board-approved stock buyback program. Additionally, the company previously announced the discontinuation of its dividend.
For fiscal 2026, management anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $225-$240 million. Company-wide capital expenditures in fiscal 2025 are now expected in the range of $45-$50 million.
Jack in the Box restaurant level margin is expected to be 17-18%. The same-store sales for Jack in the Box are anticipated to be down or up 1% compared with 2025. The franchise level margin for Jack in the Box is anticipated in the range of $275 to $290 million.
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -27.19% due to these changes.
Currently, Jack In The Box has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Jack In The Box has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
Jack In The Box belongs to the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry. Another stock from the same industry, McDonald's (MCD), has gained 5.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.
McDonald's reported revenues of $7.08 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3%. EPS of $3.22 for the same period compares with $3.23 a year ago.
McDonald's is expected to post earnings of $3.00 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.4%.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for McDonald's. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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