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Evercore ISI has great expectations next year for ON Semiconductor.
Onsemi's new product launch and recent acquisition could provide catalysts for the stock in 2026.
However, the consensus Wall Street view of more modest gains for Onsemi's shares seems more realistic.
You probably won't be shocked to learn that Wall Street is bullish about Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Of the 64 analysts surveyed by S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) in December who cover Nvidia, 60 rated the stock as a "buy" or "strong buy."
Surging demand for the company's chips has driven Nvidia's share price up by around 30% this year. The consensus 12-month price target for the stock reflects a potential upside of 44% – an impressive gain. However, another artificial intelligence (AI) stock could soar even more than that in 2026, according to one Wall Street analyst.
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In November, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raised his price target for ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON) from $68 to $80. This represents a 47% increase from the chipmaker's share price at the market close on Dec. 18, 2025.
Lipacis's outlook also suggests a significantly better performance for Onsemi than it has delivered in 2025. The stock is down by a double-digit percentage year-to-date.
Granted, not every Wall Street analyst is as upbeat about Onsemi as Evercore ISI. The average price target for the stock reflects a potential upside of only 9%. Lipacis's $80 price target for Onsemi is the highest on Wall Street.
Also, fewer than half of the analysts surveyed by S&P Global (15 out of 34) rated Onsemi as a "buy" or "strong buy." Eighteen analysts recommended holding the stock, while one advised investors to sell it.
While Nvidia makes GPUs used in servers that host AI systems, Onsemi develops intelligent power and sensing technology. The company's products are used in data centers, automobiles – especially electric vehicles (EVs), industrial facilities, energy infrastructure, and other applications.
The company has significant growth opportunities. Onsemi estimates its total addressable market to be $44 billion, with this market expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 18%.
Onsemi's launch of its new vertical gallium nitride (vGaN) power semiconductors could help the company capture a larger share of its addressable market. The chips enable higher operating voltages and faster switching. As a result, they can reduce energy loss by up to 50%. These attributes should make the company's vGaN semiconductors especially attractive to customers operating AI data centers.
The recent acquisition by Onsemi of Aura Semiconductor's Vcore power technologies could also boost growth next year. Onsemi CEO Hassane El-Khoury said in the company's third-quarter earnings call that Vcore should help "close key gaps" in the solutions offered for next-generation AI data centers.
Evercore ISI's view about Onsemi seems too bullish to me. The company definitely has some work to do. Onsemi's Q3 revenue fell 12% year over year. Its diluted earnings per share sank by 32%.
Management expects to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% by 2027. While that's three times the growth of the semiconductor industry, it's not all that impressive. By comparison, analysts project that Nvidia's revenue will increase by 48% next year.
Also, the fastest-growing areas of Onsemi's addressable market are projected to be in EVs and charging stations for EVs. But U.S. EV adoption is slowing, according to BloombergNEF. This slowdown is attributed to factors including the rollback of national fuel-economy targets, the removal of specific provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that promote EVs, and the potential restriction of California's ability to establish state-specific air quality standards.
The good news is that Onsemi's valuation is reasonable. Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5. But is this forward earnings multiple low enough to attract investors en masse? Probably not.
I think that the consensus Wall Street view of a modest gain for Onsemi in 2026 seems more realistic than Evercore ISI's projection of a 47% surge. For what it's worth, though, I suspect analysts' predictions that Nvidia will soar by 44% could also be overly optimistic.
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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and S&P Global. The Motley Fool recommends ON Semiconductor. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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