How ExxonMobil Stays Resilient in a Soft Commodity Pricing Environment

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM, a well-known name among global energy players, has a significant presence in the upstream energy segment. The company is rapidly increasing its upstream production from its advantaged assets, which include its Permian resources and Guyana assets. While the recent acquisition of Hess by oil major Chevron gives it a 30% stake in Stabroek Block, offshore Guyana, ExxonMobil still remains the main operator of the Guyana oilfield and owns the largest share with a 45% stake.

Due to its involvement in the upstream segment, the commodity pricing environment is crucial to ExxonMobil’s overall financial performance. Given the benchmark, West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") spot price is currently trailing below $60 per barrel, it is worth assessing whether XOM’s upstream operations can remain profitable in this pricing scenario.

The company continues to achieve record oil and gas production from its high-return, advantaged assets. The Permian and Guyana assets are characterized by low breakeven costs, allowing XOM to maintain profitability even in a challenging commodity pricing environment. Further, the integrated business model shields it from earnings volatility. ExxonMobil continues to focus on structural cost savings, which are expected to enhance earnings resilience amid volatile pricing environments. Additionally, ExxonMobil maintains a strong balance sheet on par with its peers, which enables it to weather market cycles with ease.

COP and EOG's Low-Cost, High Return Assets

ConocoPhillips COP and EOG Resources, Inc. EOG are two global energy firms that can thrive even during challenging commodity price environments.

ConocoPhillips’ portfolio includes assets in the prolific shale basins of the United States, the oil sands in Canada and conventional assets in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, which support low-cost production. Notably, in the U.S. Lower 48, COP has an advantaged inventory position that can support operations at a breakeven cost as low as $40 per barrel WTI. Even if crude oil prices decline significantly, ConocoPhillips will be able to maintain its financial performance and generate positive cash flows.

EOG Resources is a leading independent exploration and production company with operations focused on the prolific acres in the United States as well as several resource-rich international basins. EOG boasts a high-return, low-decline asset base and stands out among the low-cost producers in the United States. The company’s focus on maintaining a resilient balance sheet and lowering production costs should enable it to weather oil price volatility.

XOM’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of ExxonMobil have risen 10.6% over the past six months compared with the 9.2% increase of the composite stocks belonging to the industry.

From a valuation standpoint, XOM trades at a trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of 7.75X. This is above the broader industry average of 4.83X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOM’s 2025 earnings has remained unchanged over the past seven days.

XOM, COP and EOG each currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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