Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment dipped slightly in December, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropping 3 points to 136. The decline was attributable to a softening in producers' long-term outlook. The Future Expectations Index fell 4 points from the previous month to 140, while the Current Conditions Index remained steady at 128. Crop producers expressed increased concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports as Brazil expands its role in global markets, contributing to the more cautious outlook. The survey was conducted Dec. 1-5, 2025.

Producers' expectations for their farms' financial performance remained mostly unchanged in December. The Farm Financial Performance Index inched up 2 points to 94, reflecting more producers expecting this year's farm financial performance to be similar to last year's. The Farm Capital Investment Index also rose 2 points to 58. Despite this increase, most producers (60%) still see December as a bad time to make large farm investments.

"Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future."

Farmers' views on U.S. agricultural exports were mixed in December. When asked a generic question about the long-term outlook for agricultural exports, producers offered one of their most optimistic readings of the year, with only 5% expecting exports to decline over the next five years. However, their perspective shifted when the focus turned specifically to soybeans, a major agricultural export. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decrease in the next five years, up from 8% in November. At the same time, the percentage of growers expecting soybean exports to increase fell from 47% in November to 39% in December. Rising competition from Brazil is on producers' minds: 84% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports relative to Brazil, with 45% reporting they were very concerned.

Farmers remained optimistic about farmland values in December. Both the Short-Term and Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations indices stayed relatively steady, each increasing by just 1 point from November. This small gain pushed the short-term index to 117, making it 11 points higher than its September low and 7 points above last year's level. The long-term index reached 166, a new record high, and now stands 20 points above its September low and 11 points higher than this time last year.

Producers' confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy continued to decline in December. Just 54% of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58% in October and 59% in November. Uncertainty about the long-run impact of tariff policies also grew, with 19% of producers expressing uncertainty in December compared to 17% the month before. Since this question was first introduced in the spring, the percentage of producers uncertain about tariff effects has more than doubled. Despite this, overall optimism about the country's direction improved noticeably. In December, 75% of respondents said the U.S. was headed in the "right direction," the highest reading recorded since the question was added to the barometer survey in July.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

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About Purdue University

Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Sources and Notes block:

Source: Michael Langemeier, [email protected], 765-494-9557

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SOURCE CME Group