HSBC Stays Cautious on Tesla (TSLA) After Lower-Than-Expected Q4 Deliveries

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the AI Stocks Making Waves on Wall Street. On January 4, HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall reiterated a Reduce rating on the stock with a $131.00 price target. The rating affirmation follows Tesla’s fourth-quarter delivery results, with analysts flagging Q4 deliveries across key regions.

Firm analysts noted how Tesla’s delivery of 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter were below Visible Alpha consensus by 3.7% and 5.2% below their own projections. The figures represent an estimated decrease of 16% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.

This shortfall has been attributed to several factors, including end of EV credits in the US as well as weak volume in both Europe and China.

“The end of EV credits in the US will have been a factor and it seems the more affordable Standard models failed to fill the gap. The issues don’t appear to be purely US, as high-frequency data for Europe and China suggest volumes were weak in both these regions too.”

Meanwhile, energy storage business showed resilience, with 14.2 GWh deployed, exceeding Visible Alpha consensus by 4.7% and the firm’s estimate by 7.5%. Production of 434k imply how Tesla anticipates growth to pick up pace in Q1 2026.

The firm has, however, expressed skepticism about growth drivers amid intensifying competitive pressures and market regionalization.

“The global BEV market is becoming more regionalised, with US adoption stalling and competition increasing in both Europe and China. Anti-involution measures in China and the extension of trade-in subsidies should be supportive for demand, but in Europe rising competition (both domestic and imported) is likely to see Tesla continue to lose share.”

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is an automotive and clean energy company that leverages advanced artificial intelligence in its autonomous driving technology and robotics initiatives.

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