Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Allstate?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Allstate (ALL) earns a #3 (Hold) 28 days from its next quarterly earnings release on February 4, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $9.33 a share.
Allstate's Earnings ESP sits at +7.03%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $9.33 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.72. ALL is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
ALL is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE).
Ares Commercial Real Estate is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 11, 2026. ACRE's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.13 a share 35 days from its next earnings release.
For Ares Commercial Real Estate, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01 is +875.02%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, ALL and ACRE could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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