Algoma Steel Sees Q4 Loss on Tariffs and Blast Furnace Wind-Down

Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL recently announced its guidance for its fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025. Algoma, one of the leading producers of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, expects to clock total steel shipments of 375,000 to 380,000 tons and a negative adjusted EBITDA between C$95 million and C$105 million.

The company’s results were in line with this quarter’s expectations. It accurately reflects the results of headwinds posed from steel tariffs and the wind-down of blast furnace operations. The forthcoming quarters are expected to benefit from the conclusion of the wind-down and the ramp-up of the first unit of the Electric Arc Furnace project, which began operations in July 2025.

Algoma’s state-of-the-art EAF project is now operating 6 days per week and is set on schedule with the second unit. The transition to EAF steelmaking during the current quarter added a new growth avenue as the company’s advanced discussions with potential partners to expand its finishing capabilities are underway. EAF’s growth plan also aligns with Canada’s interest in strengthening domestic steelmaking capacity, supporting critical infrastructure and defense supply chains, and reinforcing Canada’s long-term industrial competitiveness.

ASTL stock has slumped 48.8% over the past year against the industry’s 45.2% growth.

ASTL’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

ASTL currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM.

At present, AEM and KGC sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while ASM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.87 per share, indicating a rise of 86.05%. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.63%. AEM’s shares have gained 132.1% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC’s 2025 earnings is pinned at $1.68 per share, indicating a 147.06% year-over-year increase. Its shares have surged 210.5% over the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s 2025 fiscal-year earnings is pinned at 17 cents per share, indicating a 13.33% year-over-year increase. ASM’s shares have gained 589% over the past year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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