Wall Street is increasingly focused on how Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) can turn improving AI execution at Amazon Web Services' into renewed stock momentum in 2026.
Analyst Take
BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating on Amazon with a price forecast of $303.
The analyst said improving sentiment around AWS's AI position could become a key driver for Amazon in 2026 after cloud concerns weighed on the stock in 2025.
Amazon gained 5% last year, trailing the S&P 500's 16% rise and the Nasdaq's 20% gain, as solid retail execution and margin expansion failed to offset investor worries that AWS was losing ground in AI.
He said that weaker confidence in AWS's positioning helped push Amazon's forward EV/EBITDA multiple down about 15% year over year.
Post expects AWS growth to accelerate in 2026 as new capacity comes online and recent AWS leadership changes create an opening to sharpen the company's AI narrative, while strong growth in Rufus usage supports a more agentic future for Amazon's retail business.
The analyst added that, for long-term investors, AWS could turn its AI positioning into an advantage if Amazon's proprietary technology—its large language model work and Trainium chips—improves versus competitors and helps AWS compete as a lower-cost provider as enterprises increasingly focus on AI inference cost efficiency.
Valuation, Growth Outlook And Estimates
On valuation, the analyst noted that around $250, Amazon trades at about 11x Street 2027 EBITDA and 25x GAAP EPS, slightly above Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) at 23x but below Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google and Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) at 26x and 35x.
He said the valuation reflects uncertainty about AWS's positioning. Post views Amazon as his top large-cap internet stock for 2026, given AWS AI exposure, expected cloud acceleration, a strong retail position for agentic e-commerce, and a 20%+ profit growth profile.
The analyst projects 25% GAAP operating income growth in 2026, supported by retail margin expansion driven by advertising growth, inbound efficiencies, robotics and headcount leverage.
For 2026, he estimates revenues to grow 12% year-over-year to $801 billion (vs Street at 11% Y/Y to $796 billion), and GAAP EPS of $7.75 (vs Street at $7.93).
Post's 2026 AWS revenue estimate of $156 billion is slightly above the Street's at $155 billion.
AMZN Price Action: Amazon.com shares were up 0.21% at $247.89 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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