United Airlines to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

United Airlines UAL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has declined 7.6% over the past 60 days to $3.05 per share. The consensus mark indicates a decline of 6.4% from the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.44 billion, indicating a 5.04% increase from the fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. 

UAL has an encouraging earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 8.8%.

United Airlines Holdings Inc Price and EPS Surprise

United Airlines Holdings Inc price-eps-surprise | United Airlines Holdings Inc Quote

Factors Likely to Have Influenced UAL’s Q4 Performance

We expect UAL's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes.

Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 5.5% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. Meanwhile, our model estimate for other revenues is pegged at $912.3 million, indicating 1.5% growth from the prior-year figure.

On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on UAL’s operations. These headwinds may have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

What Our Model Says About UAL

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -3.56% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Highlights of UAL’s Q3 Earnings

UAL reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results wherein the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but revenues missed the same.

UAL's third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.78 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64 but declined 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. The reported figure lies above the guided range of $2.25 and $2.75.

Operating revenues of $15.2 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.3 billion but increased 2.6% year over year. 

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +1.20% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. It is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has remained flat at $1.42 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice in the remaining, the average beat miss was 0.1, 8.9%. 

United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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