Q4 PC Shipments Rise 9.6%, Memory Shortage to Hurt Growth in 2026

The global PC market ended 2025 on a strong note, with fourth-quarter shipments increasing 9.6% year over year to 76.4 million units, according to the data compiled by International Data Corporation (“IDC”). The data was impressive and marked the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

However, the near-term prospects of the PC industry seem highly volatile, given the ongoing global memory shortages, which could lead to potential market contraction and significant price increases.

A Glance at Q4 PC Market Performance

The robust growth in PC shipments during the fourth quarter of 2025 was mainly driven by the typical stronger demand in the holiday season and stockpiling by buyers and brands ahead of anticipated price increases in 2026 due to memory shortages.

Among the top five vendors, Lenovo LNVGY retained its market-leading position with 19.3 million shipments and a 25.3% market share, up from 24.2% in the same period last year. HP Inc. HPQ followed with 15.4 million shipments and a market share of 20.1%, up from 19.7% in the year-ago quarter.

Dell Technologies DELL posted the biggest increase of 18.2% to reach 11.7 million units. Its market share improved from 14.2% to 15.3% and retained the third spot among the top five vendor list in the fourth quarter of 2025.

However, Apple AAPL surprises with the lowest growth among the top players. Its fourth-quarter shipments grew mere 0.2% year over year to 7.1 million units. Apple ended the quarter with a market share of 9.3%, down from 10.2% in the year-ago quarter.

ASUS also stood out, growing shipments by more than 10.9% to capture a 7.1% market share. Meanwhile, smaller manufacturers categorized under “Others” saw a collective increase of 1.5%, indicating that market share is consolidating toward larger, more resilient players.

What’s Ahead for the PC Industry in 2026?

The PC industry is heading into 2026 with growing uncertainty, and memory supply is emerging as a major constraint. In its report, IDC suggested that shortages in key memory components could slow down PC shipments and potentially reverse the market’s recent recovery. This would lead to higher prices and fewer affordable choices for consumers.

The main reason behind memory supply shortages is the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI). AI systems consume far more memory than traditional computing workloads, and memory manufacturers are reshaping their production plans to serve this demand, according to IDC’s Dec. 18, 2025 report. Capacity that once went toward standard DRAM and NAND for laptops and desktops is now being redirected to specialized, high-profit memory used in AI servers and data centers. This shift has tightened supply for consumer devices and pushed memory prices sharply higher.

Since memory accounts for a meaningful portion of a PC’s total build cost, rising prices are difficult for manufacturers to absorb. As costs climb, PC makers are preparing customers for price increases and changes in purchasing terms. Several major vendors, including Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS and Acer, have already indicated that meaningful price hikes are likely as 2026 progresses, reflecting industry-wide pressure.

For 2026, IDC projects overall PC shipments to decline on a year-over-year basis. According to its report, the industry is expected to witness a 4.9% decline in a moderate scenario and an 8.9% in a pessimistic scenario.

Nonetheless, the research firm pointed out that this environment favors large, well-established PC brands. Their scale allows them to secure better access to limited memory supplies, while smaller manufacturers may struggle to compete or even remain viable. Additionally, the PC market may still grow in value despite the decline in shipments. By focusing more on mid-range and premium systems, vendors can protect margins, leading to higher average selling prices. In 2026, the PC market may sell fewer units, but at noticeably higher prices.

Conclusion

The strong finish to 2025 gives the PC industry some breathing room, but it does not remove the challenges ahead. Memory shortages are likely to slow PC shipments and push prices higher in 2026. Larger PC makers should manage these pressures better due to their scale and supply access, while smaller players may struggle.

Of the leading vendors, Apple and Dell Technologies each carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Meanwhile, HP and Lenovo each carry a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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