Visa Breaks the Illusion of Stability: Why 2026 Could Surprise Markets

In an era marked by economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics, Visa Inc.’s V Global Economic Outlook for 2026 report makes one thing clear: the year ahead is unlikely to be ordinary. Global growth is projected at about 2.7% in 2026, only modestly lower than the estimated 2.9% pace in 2025. On the surface, that suggests stability. Yet underneath, powerful structural changes are redefining how consumers spend, how businesses operate and how economies expand.

Consumer spending continues to anchor global growth. Although momentum is expected to cool slightly next year, demand remains resilient enough to support economic activity. Visa’s spending momentum index shows both essential and discretionary purchases settling back into pre-pandemic patterns. At the same time, easing price pressures are offering relief, with global inflation projected to slow to roughly 3.1% in 2026 from an estimated 3.4% in 2025.

Global trade, however, is undergoing a notable reset. Supply chains are becoming more regional as companies diversify sourcing and reduce dependencies. This shift is fueling intra-regional trade, business travel and cross-border payments. Visa posted a 13% year-over-year increase in cross-border volumes in fiscal 2025. Peer Mastercard Incorporated MA delivered 15% growth in cross-border volumes during the first nine months of 2025, while American Express Company AXP benefited from accelerating international travel and premium spending, driving a 13% surge in International Card Services revenues.

Technology is another defining force. Artificial intelligence is rapidly moving beyond experimentation and into everyday business use. Small and mid-sized enterprises are adopting AI faster than consumers, reshaping workflows, decision-making and long-term return potential. Still, productivity gains from AI may be uneven. Aging populations in many economies could limit labor-force growth, allowing output to rise faster than employment. This raises the prospect of “near-jobless” expansion.

Finally, there’s a real possibility that an AI investment pullback could slow growth, particularly in richly valued markets. Conversely, sustained tech spending and productivity improvements could push economic performance above current expectations, but the risk of inequality lingers.

Visa’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Visa have gained 6.1% in the past year, outperforming the broader industry but underperforming the S&P 500 Index.

Visa 1-Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, Visa trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.65X, up from the industry average of 20.61X. Visa carries a Value Score of D.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa’s fiscal 2026 earnings implies an 11.7% rise year over year, followed by 13.2% growth next year.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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