Does Kinross Gold's 212% Surge in a Year Justify Buying It Now?

Kinross Gold Corporation’s KGC shares have skyrocketed 212.3% over the past year, thanks to a rally in gold prices to historic highs. KGC has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s growth of 155.6% and the S&P 500’s rise of 19.7%. Its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation B, Newmont Corporation NEM and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, have rallied 215.1%, 175.4% and 133.3%, respectively, over the same period.

Solid earnings performance, buoyed by higher realized gold prices and strong operating margins, has sparked the rise in KGC’s stock price. The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, uncertainties surrounding trade tariffs and heightened geopolitical tensions have contributed to the unprecedented upswing in bullion prices, driving gold miners, including KGC.

KGC’s One-year Price Performance

Technical indicators show that KGC has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since March 6, 2024. The stock is also currently trading above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA continues to read higher than the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.

Kinross Trades Above 50-Day SMA

Let’s take a look at KGC’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.

Development Projects to Underpin KGC’s Growth

Kinross has a strong production profile and boasts a promising pipeline of exploration and development projects. Its key development projects and exploration programs, including Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, remain on track. These projects are expected to boost production and cash flow and deliver significant value. The successful execution of these projects will position the company for a new wave of low-cost, long-life production. 

KGC is making progress with Great Bear’s Advanced Exploration program, having already completed and commissioned the key infrastructure. Detailed engineering for the key infrastructure is also advancing for the Main Project. At Round Mountain Phase X, underground drilling during the third quarter confirmed strong grades in the primary target zones. Moreover, drilling at the Curlew basin continued to show high-grade intercepts, supporting high-margin production. At the Lobo-Marte project in Chile, KGC is progressing studies to support the Environmental Impact Assessment and remains committed to advancing this potentially long-life, low-cost mine. 

Tasiast and Paracatu, the company’s two biggest assets, remain the key contributors to cash flow generation and production. Tasiast remains the lowest-cost asset within its portfolio, with a consistently strong performance. It achieved record annual production and cash flow in 2024 and is on track to meet its full-year 2025 guidance. Paracatu continues to deliver a strong performance, with third-quarter production rising year over year on higher grades. KGC also completed the commissioning of its Manh Choh project and commenced production during the third quarter of 2024, leading to a substantial increase in cash flow at the Fort Knox operation.

Kinross’ Solid Financial Health Bodes Well

KGC has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. KGC ended third-quarter 2025 with robust liquidity of roughly $3.4 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of roughly $1.7 billion. It delivered record free cash flow in the quarter, with attributable free cash flow surging approximately 66% year over year to $686.7 million, driven by the strength in gold prices and operating performance. Kinross also strengthened its balance sheet with early debt redemption of $500 million in fourth-quarter 2025. 

Kinross reactivated its share buyback program in April 2025 and repurchased shares worth roughly $405 million as of Nov. 4, 2025, including $165 million in shares in the third quarter. Total returns to its shareholders, including dividends, were around $515 million. KGC plans to return roughly $750 million through dividends and repurchases for full-year 2025. Kinross has raised share buybacks by 20% and now expects to repurchase $600 million in shares for 2025. Its board has also approved a 17% increase to the quarterly dividend to 3.5 cents per common share, equating to 14 cents per share on an annualized basis.

KGC offers a dividend yield of 0.4% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 9% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable). Backed by strong cash flows and sound financial health, the company's dividend is perceived as safe and reliable.

Rallying Gold Prices to Drive KGC’s Margins and Cash Flow

Surging gold prices should boost KGC’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. Gold prices shot up to record highs last year, largely attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. 

The yellow metal surged about 65% last year and is now trading above $4,600 per ounce. The rally was further supported by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and expectations of additional easing amid signs of U.S. economic softening and labor market concerns.

Increased central bank buying, continued expectations of rate cuts, and persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as broader macroeconomic uncertainty, are expected to help the yellow metal sustain the uptick in gold prices. Rising geopolitical strains, including those linked to the U.S.-Venezuela conflict and the ongoing protests in Iran and the potential U.S. intervention, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have fueled the recent spike in bullion to record levels.

KGC’s Estimates Reflect Positive Analyst Sentiment

Earnings estimates for KGC have been rising over the past 60 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upward over the same time frame. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is currently pegged at $1.68, suggesting year-over-year growth of 147.1%. Earnings are also expected to register roughly 35.2% growth in 2026.

A Look at Kinross Stock’s Valuation

KGC is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 14.64X, a roughly 4.8% discount compared to the industry’s average of 15.38X. It is trading at a discount to Barrick, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. Kinross and Newmont currently have a Value Score of C, each. Barrick carries a Value Score of B, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.

KGC’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, NEM & AEM

How Should Investors Play the KGC Stock?

Kinross remains a compelling investment opportunity, thanks to its strong fundamentals, expanding production pipeline and robust financial health. Upward-trending earnings estimates and a solid growth outlook further enhance its appeal. The company continues to deliver impressive financial results, generate substantial free cash flow and rapidly reduce debt, benefiting from a favorable gold price environment. KGC’s high-quality assets, continued execution on key growth projects, and solid cash flows position it for further gains even after its stellar run. With continued gold price momentum, KGC appears well-positioned to deliver attractive returns, making this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock a prudent choice for investors seeking to capitalize on favorable market conditions.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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