Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Palo Alto Networks?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.94 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 12, 2026.
Palo Alto Networks' Earnings ESP sits at +0.72%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.94 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.93. PANW is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
PANW is one of just a large database of Computer and Technology stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Apple (AAPL).
Apple, which is readying to report earnings on January 29, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $2.66 a share, and AAPL is 14 days out from its next earnings report.
For Apple, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65 is +0.41%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, PANW and AAPL could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW): Free Stock Analysis Report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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