Netflix Q4 Earnings Due Tuesday: Kalshi Bettors Say Streaming Giant To Touch On These Topics During The Call

With Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) set to report earnings on Jan. 20, traders on prediction market Kalshi are signaling high confidence that executives will highlight subscriber trends, pricing strategy and live content during the call.

Prediction Markets Hint At Earnings Call Focus

Markets tracking whether specific terms will be mentioned show strong odds for "subscriber" and "Hollywood," each hovering around 65%, while references to live events are priced as near certainties.

The contracts resolve based solely on whether the exact terms are spoken by Netflix representatives, offering insight into expected messaging rather than financial performance.

Ads Matter, But Language Choices Count

Despite advertising playing a growing role in Netflix's business, Kalshi markets suggest management may avoid explicitly using the phrase "ad-supported."

The probability of that term being mentioned remains below 40%, indicating that traders expect executives to discuss advertising using alternative language, such as ad tiers or monetization initiatives.

Wall Street Expects Steady Q4 Results

Analysts broadly expect Netflix to deliver results in line with consensus.

Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese has maintained an Outperform rating on the stock while trimming her price target.

Reese expects Netflix to post revenue of roughly $12 billion for the fourth quarter, with earnings consistent with expectations.

She anticipates steady subscriber growth and rising average revenue per membership, driven by price increases and expansion of advertising offerings.

Live Content And Pricing In The Spotlight

Beyond core subscriptions, traders see a high likelihood that Netflix will highlight its push into live programming, including sports and event-based content.

Markets also point to a strong chance that executives will address pricing or price points, reflecting hikes that have helped lift revenue per user.

Stranger Things Betting Signals Franchise Emphasis

Kalshi traders assign high odds to a mention of "Stranger Things," reflecting the franchise's continued importance to Netflix's identity.

The fifth season in December 2025 delivered the biggest premiere week ever for an English-language Netflix series, racking up nearly 60 million views globally.

Warner Bros Betting Tied To M&A Speculation

Markets also show elevated expectations that Netflix will reference Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), as speculation around a potential acquisition continues to swirl.

Netflix is widely seen as competing with Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) for major studio assets and a deal involving Warner Bros. Discovery could significantly bolster its content library.

Such an acquisition would give Netflix access to franchises including "Friends," "Game of Thrones" and "Harry Potter," potentially filling the gap left by the conclusion of "Stranger Things."

Price Action: Netflix shares have fallen about 28.65% over the past six months, data from Benzinga Pro show.

Benzinga Edge rankings indicate the stock is trending lower across short, medium and long-term horizons, with weak momentum and value scores.

Photo Courtesy: TY Lim on Shutterstock.com

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.