American Airlines to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 27, before market open.

American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 26.54%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q4 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $14.07 billion, indicating 3.02% growth year over year. Management expects total revenues for the fourth quarter to increase in the 3-5% range from year-ago levels.

We expect AAL's performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been boosted by an uptick in total revenues, driven by high passenger revenues, as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes. Upbeat passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday period are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 3.2% increase from fourth-quarter 2024 actual. Meanwhile, our model estimate for cargo and other revenues indicates growth of 6% and 6.2%, respectively, from the prior-year reported figure.

On the contrary, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 37.7% to 38 cents per share in the past 60 days. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a decline of 55.81% from the year-ago actual.The consensus estimate lies below the company's guidedrange of 45-75 cents per share.

We expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation to weigh on AAL’s operations. The ongoing economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence are likely to have hurt the company’s prospects.

Escalated labor and airport costs are also likely to have been high, which would have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the December quarter. Despite costs on aircraft fuel decreasing year over year (down 4% in fourth-quarter 2025, per our model), AAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 6.5% in fourth-quarter 2025 from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals, led by the 8% rise in salaries and related costs.

AAL expects fourth-quarter 2025 cost per available seat miles (adjusted) to increase in the 2.5-4.5% range from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.

What Our Model Says About AAL

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -1.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote

Highlights of AAL’s Q3 Earnings

American Airlines’ third-quarter 2025 loss of 17 cents per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 27 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings per share of 30 cents. Operating revenues of $13.69 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.63 billion and edged past the year-ago number of $13.65 billion. The top line was aided by the strength of high-margin premium services.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present, and is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 1.43% at $1.42 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice, the average miss was 0.1%.

United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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