Don't Buy UnitedHealth Group Stock Before Jan. 27

It's been a rough past 12 months for UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), with the stock price down nearly 34% (through Jan. 20). This is not-so-great news for a company that's had its fair share of scrutiny, missteps, and bad public relations in the past few years.

UnitedHealth is undoubtedly going through a transition period (including a new CEO who was introduced in May 2025), but much of its core business is still intact. Even so, there are still enough question marks around the business that warrant holding off a bit before making an investment decision.

If you're considering investing in UnitedHealth, I would wait until at least Jan. 27 before making a decision.

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Why wait until Jan. 27?

After a disappointing start to 2025, UnitedHealth suspended its profit forecast for the rest of the year, the first time it had done so. It was also the first time the company had fallen short of a quarterly earnings estimate since 2008.

UnitedHealth blamed the miss on more surgeries, increased doctor visits, and greater use of specialized services (such as outpatient procedures or advanced scans), all of which mean higher costs. More people utilizing these services means more insurance claims UnitedHealth has to pay.

On Jan. 27, UnitedHealth will not only release its full-year 2025 results, but also potentially provide its financial guidance for 2026. Guidance doesn't guarantee results, but it'll give investors insight into what the company expects going forward.

What should you be looking for on Jan. 27?

There will be three key things to monitor when (or if) UnitedHealth releases its 2026 guidance: projected earnings per share (EPS), operating margin, and medical care ratio (MCR).

Ideally, UnitedHealth's estimated 2026 EPS would be at least $17.25 because it would be a decent step above the projected $16.25 EPS for 2025.

When it comes to operating margin, around 4% to 5% is a solid range. It may sound extremely low, but health insurance is a notoriously low-margin business. Insurers' money comes from lots of volume.

MCR is an industry-specific term that means the percentage of the money UnitedHealth collects in premiums that it spends on medical claims (such as hospital stays or doctor visits). For example, if it made $100 million and spent $75 million, its MCR would be 75%.

If UnitedHealth can check those boxes (or at least two of the three), its valuation will make it hard for long-term investors to pass up.

Stefon Walters has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.