Medifast's Q4 Guidance Remains Weak: When Does Growth Return?

Medifast, Inc.’s MED guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 remains weak, with revenue projected to be between $65 million and $80 million and a loss per share ranging from 70 cents to $1.25. This reflects quite a deterioration from revenues of $119 million and adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The fourth-quarter 2025 guidance follows a weak third quarter, wherein revenue fell 36.2% year over year to $89.4 million. The decline was mainly due to a 35% drop in active earning coaches, which ended the quarter at about 19,500. Average revenue per active coach also declined 1.9% year over year to $4,585.

To drive recovery, Medifast is actively transitioning from just a weight loss company toward becoming a leader in the broader metabolic health landscape. This strategy focuses on metabolic synchronization to reverse metabolic dysfunction by targeting visceral fat while preserving 98% of lean mass. This presents a huge opportunity for the company, as 90% of Americans are metabolically unhealthy. At its third-quarter earnings call, management stated that a new product line supporting this approach is expected to launch next year.

The company is also adapting to the rise of GLP-1 medications, with 61% of coaches having worked with GLP-1 users and 22% of the client base having used these drugs. Medifast positions its program as an essential lifestyle companion for these users. The company is also rightsizing its operations to support margin expansion as revenue stabilizes.

The company reiterated that its path back to growth begins with improvements in client acquisition and retention, followed by sustained growth in revenue per active earning coach. Historically, such improvements lead to coach growth after six to nine months, with overall revenue growth typically following within one to two quarters. Management believes revenue per active earning coach could begin to improve as early as the fourth quarter. However, at a minimum, such improvement is expected within the next six months and would signify an initial sign of stabilization.

Zacks Rundown for MED

Medifast’s shares have lost 18.5% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 15.6%. MED currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

From a valuation standpoint, MED trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.37, lower than the industry’s average of 1.10.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MED’s current fiscal-year earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 156.5%, and the same for next fiscal-year earnings implies growth of 45.2%.

Better-Ranked Stocks to Consider

United Natural Foods, Inc. UNFI distributes natural, organic, specialty, produce and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. At present, United Natural sports a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Natural’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 1.4% and 197.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. UNFI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 52.1%, on average.

The Simply Good Foods Company SMPL, a consumer-packaged food and beverage company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of snacks and meal replacements, and other products in North America and internationally. SMPL currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Simply Good Foods' current fiscal-year sales implies a decline of 0.3%, and the same for current fiscal-year earnings implies growth of 1.6% from the year-ago reported figures. SMPL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.53%, on average.

McCormick & Company, Inc. MKC manufactures, markets and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments and other flavorful products to the food industry. MKC currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for McCormick's current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively, from the year-ago actuals. MNST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.2%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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